BELAGAVI: The changes made by the Basavaraj Bommai-led State Government to the existing reservation policy at the fag end of its tenure is expected to have a huge impact on the May 10 Karnataka Assembly polls, especially in the 56 constituencies of Kittur Karnataka region, considered the Lingayat heartland.
The region comprises Uttara Kannada, Dharwad, Belagavi, Bagalkot, Vijayapura, Haveri, and Gadag districts. The issue of scrapping the 2B reservation matrix for Muslims and sharing the same between Lingayats and Vokkaligas has put the voters in a dilemma in the region.
Even as the ruling BJP made a desperate attempt to appease Lingayats by extending 2% reservation to them from the scrapped 2B quota, the majority of Lingayat voters across the region are said to be upset with the saffron party for “sidelining” former chief minister BS Yediyurappa, a prominent leader of the community. Yediyurappa, however, has made it clear that he has not been sidelined by the party.
In 2013 polls, the Congress won 34 of the 56 seats in the region and formed the government. In 2018, however, the BJP tasted success in 40 seats, but sat in the Opposition after the JDS and Congress entered into an alliance.
Apart from the issue of reservation, other contentious issues such as the Congress’ 40% commission allegation and Lokayukta raid on BJP legislator Madal Virupakshappa could jeopardise the prospects of the BJP, giving an edge to the Grand Old Party in the region. On the other hand, a series of irrigation projects in Kittur Karnataka, including the Mahadayi project which the Bommai government succeeded in getting through, may come as a big boost to the BJP.
However, irrespective of political developments, the BJP is expected to gain an upper hand in Uttar Kannada, Dharwad and Haveri districts where the party currently has 15 seats as against four of the Congress. It is interesting to watch out which way the 37 crucial seats in Belagavi, Bagalkot, Vijayapura and Gadag will swing. Currently, the BJP has 13 seats as against five of Congress in Belagavi and four seats as against two of Congress and one of JDS in Vijayapura. In Bagalkot, the BJP has five seats and the Congress has two. A neck-and-neck clash is expected between Congress and BJP in the aforementioned 37 Assembly segments which hold the key to Vidhana Soudha.
While the Congress is trying to corner the Bommai government by highlighting its “weaknesses”, the BJP is largely dependent on its star campaigners, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, to bolster its prospects. Modi, who held roadshows back to back in the state in recent times, is expected to hold more campaigns in Kittur Karnataka.
One of the high-stakes clashes in the region is in Shiggaon — the constituency currently represented by Chief Minister Basvaraj Bommai. A clash between two Lingayats is likely as Congress is keen on fielding Vinay Kulkarni, who is being projected as a face of Panchamsali-Lingayats. Interesting, clashes are on the cards in Assembly segments of Vijayapura City, Gokak, Belagavi Rural, Athani, Raibag, Dharwad, Bhatkal, Kalaghatgi, Badami, Gadag, Haveri, Nipani, Saudatti, and Belagavi North.
With both the BJP and Congress fielding Lingayat candidates in many constituencies, the release of candidate lists is being delayed due to the fear of a possible massive split of votes. The BJP is well placed to take advantage of the favourable demography of the region for a couple of reasons.
After the collapse of Janata Dal after the demise of SR Bommai, JH Patel and Ramakrishna Hegde, a host of JD leaders switched to the BJP. This brought stalwarts from the dominant Lingayat community into the BJP fold along with their popular base and their organisational machinery. The rising popularity of Yediyurappa as a Lingayat icon contributed to the BJP’s dominance in the region.
In the Belagavi district, BJP emerged as a strong force in the last 15 years with politically influential Jarkiholi and Katti families entering its fold from JDS. Once a powerful base for Congress, BJP turned Belagavi into its fort with a solid performance in the last few elections.