BENGALURU: Two eminent climate scientists have cautioned against the impact of climate change and rise in temperature over Central India “between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 1.80 degrees Celsius by 2050 and between 2.2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 and mean precipitation between 11 and 13% by 2050 and 15 and 30% by 2100”.
In a research paper published recently, Prof BN Goswami, SERB Distinguished Fellow, Cotton University, Guwahati and former director, The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), SERB, and Dr Shailesh Nayak, Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies, (NIAS), Bengaluru and Distinguished Scientist, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), stressed on the impact of climate change on “spatial and temporal variability of monsoon rainfall and increase in extreme situations like floods and droughts.” They raised concerns over preparedness for these extreme weather conditions and suggested timely interventions for better monitoring and management.
In a policy brief, ‘Climate Change and Indian Monsoon: Implications on Water Cycle’, published by NIAS, the authors cautioned against increase in temperatures, change in monsoon patterns, decrease in snowfall and its impact on the Indus basin and rise in extreme weather conditions like last year’s floods in Pakistan.
“The changes in the monsoon occurring at monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal scales have major implications on the water cycle and consequently on all water-using sectors such as agriculture, power, biodiversity, urban settlements, etc. Are we prepared to adapt to these changes, which are likely to happen in the next 2-3 decades?”
Experts warn of flash floods
The authors stated that “future projections related to changes in monsoon, droughts, sea level, ocean warming, cyclones, and Himalayan systems should be translated into policy directions to strengthen the response to climate change.”
They warned that “further increase in temperature and moisture is expected to lead to enhanced variability in mean, extremes, and inter-annual precipitation during the next few decades. This is likely to lead to more intense flash floods, especially in the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins. The increase in tropical cyclones will lead to increased flooding in coastal areas.”
Goswami and Nayak said while increased rainfall in the North West region due to the westward shift of monsoon is likely “to lead to greening of the Thar desert and benefit agriculture, increased flooding in the absence of efficient drainage will affect the socio-economic conditions in the region.”
The Indus basin is likely to receive reduced snowfall, which may affect the river flow during summer.
They said, “Reliable information on monsoon is critical for India as 50% people depend on agriculture and contribute about 17% to the GDP. Water availability per capita has been dipping since 1950 due to increasing population.”
They stressed the need to understand and model changes in rain patterns and how they affect the water cycle, and suggested timely interventions to help plan and mitigate the crises. Some of them are “strengthening of observation networks of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere to increase our capability to generate outputs from predictive and empirical models and setting up and enhancing an integrated climate information system”. The same must be linked to understand the impact on human health. They suggested building flood shelters like cyclone shelters in vulnerable regions and recharging of groundwater.