Just a little over three weeks before the polls, the ruling BJP appears to be in a state of flux after the announcement of its candidates for the May 10 assembly elections. Many of its leaders openly expressed displeasure over not getting the tickets, their supporters hit the streets in protest and some seniors quit the party.
Top BJP leaders will be working overtime to end the crisis as the party’s prospects are directly linked to its ability to fix internal issues quickly. Its candidates, especially a large number of new faces, need time to prepare the ground to take on Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) candidates.
Unlike in many other states, Congress in Karnataka is quite formidable and well-equipped to exploit any faultlines in the BJP camp. The JDS is also a big force in Old Mysuru as well as some constituencies in other areas. In many ways, the BJP’s candidates’ selection strategy is a bold and risky move. It is a clear attempt to overcome the anti-incumbency. It reflects the party’s aim to retain power as well as maintain the continuity of the party’s tradition of rewarding its workers. The logic is that many seniors who are upset over being benched had already reached top positions or been in power for many years, and BJP expects them to make way for others.
However, it is not that straightforward in all cases. Winnability and accommodating those who helped the party form its government in 2019 seem to have played a major role.
Take the example of Laxman Savadi, a Lingayat leader from Belagavi who joined Congress on Friday. The BJP made him DyCM in 2019 and gave him key portfolios even after he had lost the 2018 assembly elections. At one point many thought the party was grooming him to be the next big Lingayat leader after BS Yediyurappa. But that equation slowly changed after the leadership change in state in 2021 when he was dropped from the ministry. Now, when it came to choosing between Savadi and former minister Ramesh Jarkiholi, the party went with the latter. Despite putting the party in an embarrassing situation over a sleaze video that forced his exit from the cabinet, BJP considers Jarkiholi a force to reckon with in the district that has 18 assembly segments. His close aide Mahesh Kumatalli was given the BJP ticket in the Athani assembly segment in Belagavi resulting in Savadi’s exit from BJP.
While Congress is going gaga over its new acquisition, BJP does not seem to be that concerned about the damage that Savadi or other veterans, who were asked to make way for the few faces, could cause. Many in the party feel such a strategy should have been implemented by taking seniors into confidence and giving adequate time for fresh faces to prepare the ground. That would have helped the party avoid the situation that it is in today. Even in Coastal Karnataka, where BJP leaders fully depend on the party to win elections, many openly expressed displeasure, although they eventually fell in line.
Also, the delay in announcing all candidates showed confusion and lack of clarity. That is also the case with its strategy of fielding heavyweight ministers against the Congress’ chief ministerial candidates. It is a move with good intentions to grow the party in the region where it is weak. But, if the BJP was serious about giving a tough fight to the Congress stalwarts and making an attempt to breach into their fortresses, it should have sent that message by fielding its leaders in just one constituency each.
Housing Minister V Somanna is contesting against former CM Siddaramaiah in Varuna and also in Chamarajanagar. Revenue Minister R Ashoka is contesting against state Congress president DK Shivakumar in Kanakapura and his home constituency Padmanabhanagar in Bengaluru. For now, it looks more like a test for its leaders to prove their political mettle outside of their comfort zones in Bengaluru. If they give a good fight in Congress leaders’ safe seats, their stock in BJP would go up.
It all depends on the efficient execution of the party’s strategy on the ground, rather than just depending on the big rallies to change the tide, though such rallies will have some impact on the morale of the cadre.
Now, as Congress and JDS are trying to make the most of the uncertainties in BJP, the ruling party’s well-oiled machinery will do everything to ensure that its strategy works. If one has to draw some analogy from a high-intensity cricket match, the difference between a sixer and a catch on the boundary line is just a few yards.