Congress, which got a headstart over BJP in announcing candidates for the May 10 polls, is facing rebellion in some segments. It looks like a natural corollary. But failure to handle it deftly can damage its prospects, as BJP and Janata Dal (Secular) would try to make the most of the situation which is still very fluid. It all may change rapidly once the BJP announces its list.
For now, a look at Congress’ list of candidates announced so far indicates that the Grand Old Party is sticking to its plan to win over the dominant Lingayat community. Thirty-seven out of 166 candidates are from the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community, and their numbers may increase when the party announces candidates for the remaining 58 seats. In 2018, 16 of the 43 candidates from the community won elections, while its strike rate was better with 26 out of 44 in 2013 polls when Congress came to power with a clear majority. In the 2018 polls, the BJP had done well in Lingayat-dominated seats and JDS in the Vokkaliga belt.
Congress seems to have learnt from its past mistakes when the demand for a separate Lingayat religion proved costly and resulted in the defeat of most of its leaders associated with the movement. Now, the party seems to be carefully working on a strategy that can help improve its prospects in the assembly polls.
Congress sees the 2023 elections as an opportunity to get back the support of the community that had supported its leader Veerendra Patil when he led the party to a landslide victory by winning 178 of the 224 seats in 1989.
His unceremonious removal from the CM post by then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had a disastrous impact on the party. Its numbers plummeted to 34 in 1994 polls. That was the election when Janata Dal under the leadership of Deve Gowda got a clear majority by winning 115 seats. BJP made its presence felt by winning 40 seats, a significant increase from just four in the previous polls. After that, the community consistently backed BJP’s Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa.
After Yediyurappa stepped down from the CM’s post in July 2021, Congress has been making concerted attempts to get Lingayats back into its fold. The party is trying to capitalise on the alleged marginalisation of Yediyurappa, who broke down on the stage while announcing his resignation. Former minister and Lingayat leader MB Patil was appointed the Congress campaign committee chief, and the party never misses an opportunity to term Yediyurappa’s resignation as a slight on the Lingayat community.
Congress was also hoping to cash in on the demand of Panchamsali Lingayats to be included in the 2A reservation category with a 15% quota. The BJP government managed to defuse the situation and convinced the community leaders to end the agitation after it increased Lingayats’ reservation from 5 to 7 %. But, not everyone in the community is satisfied with the government’s decision.
The Congress also seems to be carefully working on its caste arithmetic. State Congress leader DK Shivakumar is from the Vokkaliga community, Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader Siddaramaiah is a backward classes leader, and MB Patil is the campaign committee chief. The party is making conscious efforts to deny BJP the handle to accuse it of minority appeasement.
Congress insiders hope the party will get the support 0f 30% of Lingayat community voters who had voted for BJP in the last elections, and that would make a lot of difference to its prospects.
Its task, however, is not that easy. BJP is likely to field a large number of Lingayats and is going to polls with Basavaraj Bommai, a Lingayat, as CM, while Yediyurappa is also campaigning aggressively. BJP is also banking on the support from various communities that have benefited from the increase in the reservation as well as its attempts to solve the issue of internal reservation among the Scheduled Castes (SC). Taking the Lambani community, which is opposing the internal reservation, into confidence remains a challenge.
In a way, it will be like Congress’ efforts to win back a major community versus BJP’s reservation gambit along with retaining the Lingayat support base and JDS’ efforts to hold ground in Vokkaliga heartland.
At this point, all parties are equally hopeful. In Karnataka politics, one who finishes at the top or first does not necessarily become the CM, unless they get a clear majority. The buzz in the political circles is that JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy stands a better chance of becoming CM if his party wins around 40 seats and BJP or Congress fails to cross the halfway mark. They need to come close to at least 100 seats to give it a shot at the government formation.
All that may be clear on May 13 when the results will be announced. For now, everyone is eagerly awaiting the announcement of BJP ‘s candidates which is expected in a day or two. That would give a clearer picture of the battle in the offing.