As the poll dates are expected to be announced anytime now, the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery is executing its plan perfectly to control the poll narrative. The Congress, which looked to be in the driver’s seat a few months ago, now faces the tough task of matching the BJP’s blitzkrieg and deftly handling the tricky job of ticket distribution.
For Congress and its president Mallikarjun Kharge, Karnataka offers a glimmer of hope. But that comes with considerable challenges. Congress enjoys a good support base at the grassroots level in Karnataka. Winning the state will be crucial for reviving the party at the national level as the grouping of regional parties looks to occupy the anti-BJP pole by elbowing out Congress.
State polls are a litmus test for Kharge’s leadership. A victory in his home state will help him to assert his authority in the party ahead of the 2024 polls. The failure to do so may raise questions over Congress and its leadership’s ability to fight BJP in the LS polls.
The Grand Old Party is hoping to stop BJP’s efforts to buck the trend to return to power. But its candidates have to largely depend on the support the party enjoys at the grassroots level and their rapport with voters to defeat BJP’s formidable election fighting machinery.
Many BJP leaders, including ministers, admit that there is an anti-incumbency sentiment against the government and they are making efforts to overcome it. But Congress’ high-decibel campaigns to encash the anti-incumbency factor were not sustained till they reached voters across the state and fell short of driving home their message. They could hardly sustain even an issue like the ruling party MLA’s son being found with around Rs 8 crore cash by the Lokayukta.
It looks as if Congress peaked a little early and it now faces the Herculean task of sustaining its momentum. For now, its focus seems to be handling the all-important task of ticket distribution. After sifting through the details of internal surveys, reports from in-house experts, and feedback from local leaders, the party is said to have finalised its first list of candidates which will be announced soon. However, finalising candidates in seats with more than one strong contender will pose a real test to the leadership. That would cause heartburn among those who fail to make it and even result in rebellion, if not handled well. Congress as well as BJP face such a situation in many constituencies.
The party insiders hope that Kharge, who knows all 224 constituencies and local equations like the back of his hand, will be able to deal with the challenge in the best possible manner. After Kharge took over as AICC president, the party has been able to put a lid on the public debate over Congress’ chief ministerial candidate. But one cannot rule out the possibility of that playing out subtly in many constituencies, impacting the party’s overall prospects.
The party seems to be banking on the guarantee schemes; Rs 2000 to women heads of households, up to 200 units of free power and 10 kg rice to BPL families. Former AICC president Rahul Gandhi, who is visiting Karnataka on Monday for the first time after the Bharat Jodo Yatra that got a good response in the state, is also likely to announce a similar scheme for the youth.
The Congress largely depends on state Congress president DK Shivakumar and former chief minister Siddaramaiah to spearhead its campaign, unlike BJP which deployed 45 national leaders during its ongoing Vijay Sankalpa Yatra.
Chief Ministers from BJP-ruled states and many Union ministers are crisscrossing the state with their aggressive campaigns to woo voters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president JP Nadda are frequently visiting the state.
The PM’s roadshow in Mandya helped to generate good optics for the BJP which is trying hard to make inroads into the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region. The party leaders also believe that independent MP Sumalatha Ambareesh extending support to BJP will help its candidates.
However, it is still not clear if the BJP leaders’ big rallies and independent MP’s support will make much of a difference for the party in the region, a stronghold of Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress. Many constituencies are likely to witness a triangular fight, which is a good sign for BJP. As the campaigning enters a crucial stage, the political parties are all set to go into overdrive.
Ramu Patil
Associate Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com