After initial dithering over seat-sharing that caused some discomfiture, the BJP-JDS combine seems to be going on an overdrive to synergize the efforts to leverage each other’s strengths. But Hassan, a key constituency for JDS, remains an Achilles’ heel. In the last few days, the coalition partners have made concerted efforts to put in place systems to ensure that the alliance works not just at the top, but even at the cadre level. That would be key to the transfer of votes in the battle against Congress that aims to continue its winning streak in the state.
The need for better coordination between the alliance partners was discussed extensively in the BJP-JDS leaders’ meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Bengaluru earlier this week. After that meeting, they took the initiative to bring cadres of both parties together. JDS workers will also be part of BJP’s massive exercise of holding meetings at 58,000 booths in the state on April 10 and 11.
As optics matter in politics, top leaders from BJP and JDS were seen together during the candidates’ nomination filing process in many constituencies. In Mandya, former chief minister BS Yediyurappa, Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, and the party candidate from Mysuru-Kodagu Lok Sabha constituency Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar accompanied former CM HD Kumaraswamy while he filed his nomination papers. It looked like a well-crafted strategy to send a message of unity to cadres in Mysuru and all Lok Sabha constituencies across the state.
However, the same bonhomie was not visible in neighbouring Hassan. Prominent local BJP leader and State General Secretary Preetham Gowda stayed away from JDS candidate Prajwal Revanna’s nomination filing process. Though BJP state president BY Vijayendra accompanied the JDS leaders, local BJP leaders did not show much enthusiasm. In former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s home district Hassan, the fight is largely between JDS and Congress, unlike Bengaluru Rural, Mysuru, Mandya, and other segments where coalition partners are putting up a united front.
The JDS is contesting from three seats — Hassan, Kolar, and Mandya. While it needs BJP support in all three seats, more so in Hassan where the regional party is facing a tough contest from Congress. In Kolar, the internal rift among the local Congress leaders is likely to help the regional party while BJP is not such a big force there. So far as the Mandya seat is concerned, Sumalatha Ambareesh formally joining the BJP might add heft to JDS’ campaign to some extent.
The former CM contesting from the seat in the Vokkaliga heartland Mandya could help to blunt Congress efforts to win over the Vokkaliga support base in the Old Mysuru region. After JDS hitched its bandwagon with BJP, Congress sees an opportunity to shift Vokkaliga votes away from the regional party. However, winning over a majority of Vokkaligas may not be an easy task for Congress given the animosity between former PM HD Deve Gowda and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. In assembly polls, a section of Vokkaligas had backed Congress headed by KPCC president D K Shivakumar. Political analysts closely tracking the developments in the state feel the transfer of votes between BJP and JDS may not be as difficult as in the case of the Congress-JDS combine in the last LS polls.
In 2019, when Congress-JDS faced the elections together, their votes did not transfer to each other. The alliance had also proved counter-productive, resulting in the defeat of many high-profile candidates including Kumraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy in Mandya. In that election, the alliance partners working at cross-purposes had helped the BJP win a historic high of 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Now, given its well-defined organizational structure and functionaries even at the booth level, it may not be difficult for the BJP to transfer its votes to JDS in most of the constituencies.
The JDS may have to go that extra mile to convey its message to its workers and, more importantly to its supporters as its organizational structure at the booth level is not that well-defined. Once the nomination withdrawal process is over on April 8, the BJP is planning to notch up its game with rallies addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top central leaders in the 14 constituencies that are going to the polls in the second phase on April 26.
The JDS’ three seats and a high-profile Bengaluru Rural seat where JDS supremo Deve Gowda’s sonin- law Dr CN Manjunath is contesting on the BJP ticket, are among the 14 seats. As local Congress leaders are trying to fight the national elections on local issues, not falling into the BJP’s game plan of centering the elections around Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, the success of the BJP-JDS combine will depend on the effectiveness of vote transfer, which seems to be their focus now.
Ramu Patil
Assistant Resident Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com