After the high-decibel contest in the Vokkaliga heartland, the electoral battle has now shifted to the Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka region. Up north, as the scorching sun pushes temperatures to exhausting highs, the BJP and Congress are engaged in a direct fight for 14 seats that will go to the polls on May 7.
Unlike in the Old Mysuru region, Janata Dal (Secular) is not a major force in these seats, though it has a presence in some pockets. The BJP-JDS alliance is largely limited to the constituencies that went to polls on April 26. While the regional party contested from three seats, it has a significant presence in the other 11 segments. So, the transfer of votes between the two was crucial for alliance candidates’ success.
Anyway, the action has now shifted to the North and Central Karnataka regions and also parts of the Malnad as well as coastal Karnataka. Here, the real challenge for the BJP is to score a perfect 100 out of 100, if it is aiming to do an encore of its 2019 performance in the state. The party had swept all 14 seats, while the Congress drew a blank. Even Congress’ stalwart Mallikarjun Kharge lost in his home district. He is currently a member of the Rajya Sabha.
But, in the last five years, much water has flown down the Krishna River, which traverses through North Karnataka districts. Political equations have changed considerably. Kharge is now the AICC president. Congress outpaced the BJP in the 2023 assembly polls. Here, the Grand Old Party is at its fighting best, unlike most parts of the country where it is at the mercy of its alliance partners or is struggling to match the BJP’s firepower in direct contests.
As the determined Congress is going all guns blazing, it’s a test for BJP to prove its sway over the Lingayat community, especially after chinks surfaced during the last year’s assembly polls. In the 2023 election, Congress managed to woo a section of the Lingayat community that had solidly backed the BJP in the earlier elections. That was probably one of the reasons why BJP’s tally went way below its conservative estimate.
However, compared to the assembly polls, the situation now looks much better for BJP. The voting pattern in Lok Sabha elections would be different from that of state elections, while the party would also be hoping to make the most of the Narendra Modi-BS Yediyurappa factor. In the previous elections, Yeddyurappa’s political acumen had helped the BJP to translate Modi’s popularity into votes and seats. Even this time the BJP will be banking on that factor heavily.
The party faces its share of challenges too. Former Deputy CM KS Eshwarappa is proving to be an irritant for Yediyurappa in his home district. Angered by the party’s decision to deny a ticket to his son to contest from the Haveri-Gadag seat, Eshwarappa has jumped into the electoral fray as an independent from Shivamogga, to cause some trouble for Yediyurappa’s son Raghavendra, who is seeking reelection.
Eshwarappa may not be able to dent the BJP’s prospects, but in terms of optics, it has done the damage. In Dharwad LS seat, Lingayat seer Dingaleshwara Swami is up in arms against BJP’s Pralhad Joshi. Here again, the seer may not be able to sweep away BJP’s votes, but the development did help Congress to take a swipe at BJP on the Lingayat issue.
Many senior BJP leaders in the fray are former chief ministers Jagadish Shettar and Basavaraj Bommai, Union Ministers Pralhad Joshi, Bhagawant Khuba and Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri — the last replaced firebrand leader Ananth Kumar Hegde, who often kicked up controversies with his extreme rightist views.
On its part, Congress has fielded the kin of sitting ministers and top leaders from many seats, including Kharge’s son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani from Kalaburgi. Winning Kalaburagi and the majority of seats in Kalyan Karnataka would be crucial for asserting Kharge’s leadership within the party.
By and large, the election-related issues in South and North Karnataka are the same. The BJP is slamming Congress over its handling of severe drought, law-and-order situation, minority appeasement, diverting funds meant for SC/STs welfare for guarantee schemes, and development works coming to a standstill. The Congress’s main poll planks remain the Centre’s failure to adequately provide drought relief to the state, the alleged disparity in tax devolution, unemployment, price rise, implementation of guarantees as well as the failure to fulfill other promises made in its 2024 election manifesto.
As both sides pull all the stops to win a maximum number of seats, support from the dominant Lingayat community will play a crucial role. More so for the BJP, which will be keen to consolidate its support base. But, if the Congress manages to breach its Lingayat fortress again, it could ring alarm bells for the BJP in the long run. The developments in the next few days will not just impact the May 7 polls but have far-reaching implications on the political narrative in the state.
Ramu Patil
Assistant Resident Editor