Sumalatha Ambareesh, actor-turned-politician, defeated then Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil, also an actor-turned-politician, in Mandya in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It was among the high-profile contests in Karnataka.
This time again, all eyes are on Mandya — the sugar bowl in the Vokkaliga heartland of Old Mysuru region — even before the parties announce their candidates. In many ways, the constituency reflects the changed political equations in the region, the challenges the alliance partners face, and their commitment to join forces, from grassroots to top leadership, to fight the assertive Congress.
While the Grand Old Party is preparing to go the whole hog in Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar’s home region, intense behind-the-scenes efforts to finalize the seat-sharing appear to be reaching the final stages in the NDA.
The JDS is confident of getting Mandya, Hassan and Kolar, while it is also said to be hoping to get one more seat. Sources in the party indicate the possibility of Dr CN Manjunath, well-known cardiologist and JDS supremo HD Deve Gowda’s son-in-law, contesting as BJP candidate from Bengaluru Rural LS seat. The unorthodox poll strategy may be an effort to take on the Congress in its strong seat represented by DK Shivakumar’s brother DK Suresh. It was the only seat Congress had won in the last elections.
For the BJP-JDS alliance, among all the seats, Mandya may be the most difficult one to decide. Whatever the decision may be, it is going to be a tough call. As an independent candidate backed by the BJP, Sumalatha had defeated JDS in a vitriolic election. Their animosity continued till the regional party became part of the NDA recently.
In the last elections, local Congress leaders had backed Sumalatha to defeat the JDS that had swept the assembly polls in the district, a year before the 2019 LS elections. Now, if fault lines erupt in the alliance, Congress will exploit the situation to its advantage.
While seat-sharing is decided at the top level, the big challenge lies in ensuring they work together wholeheartedly in the constituency, and not allow local equations to derail big strategies. In Tumakuru, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, who had contested as JDS-Congress alliance candidate, lost with a narrow margin to BJP in the last elections. Differences among local leaders of alliance partners undid the plan, despite the high-profile candidate and a grand strategy.
While giving final touches to seat-sharing and strategy, BJP-JDS leaders will certainly be looking at the factors that led to the dismal performance of the Congress-JDS alliance in the last elections. They won just one seat each.
Now, BJP sees Mandya as a gateway to Old Mysuru region, that remains a chink in its armour. The party has been trying to make inroads into the Congress-JDS bastion. In Mandya, it has not won assembly or LS polls, except the 2019 bypoll in KR Pete when BS Yediyurappa was CM. Now, the party will be looking beyond the LS polls and making all efforts to get a foothold in the region.
If one goes by Sumalatha’s confidence in retaining the seat and her emphasis on strengthening BJP in the district, the central leadership may have given her an indication. The JDS is also showing the same degree of confidence and feels it is a done deal. After Hassan, Mandya is the most important seat for the regional party, although in the 2023 assembly elections, the party won just one of seven assembly segments.
Kumaraswamy was certainly sending out a message to leaders within his party as well as those in alliance when he wore a saffron shawl and took the lead in the BJP’s protest against the government’s decision not to allow a saffron flag to be hoisted from a flagpost in Keragodu village in the district. Also, in the just-concluded budget session of the state legislature, the regional party fully joined hands with the BJP in taking on the government.
Party insiders believe the LS polls will be crucial for JDS’ future, which is the reason they have fully aligned with the BJP to fight the Congress. The regional party seems to perceive an imminent threat from the Congress under the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar leadership.
Although the JDS lost the recent Rajya Sabha polls, it did well in retaining all its 19 MLAs together. In a way, it was a setback for the BJP as two of its legislators went against the party’s directive. While one cross-voted, another remained absent. It remains to be seen what action the BJP takes against its lawmakers, even as it treads carefully with its alliance partner.