With the Election Commission of India [ECI] announcing the dates for the Lok Sabha polls, the die has been cast for the election of “Congress’s Guarantees” versus “Modi ki Guarantees”. Amid the severe drought, drinking water crisis and rising mercury levels, the voters will be subjected to a deluge of assurances by all sides in the coming weeks.
The BJP appears to have a head start in Karnataka. However, the party in Karnataka is facing far too many internal issues after it took a calculated risk in candidates’ selection. Anger has erupted among its leaders and cadres in several constituencies, prompting the senior leaders to get into a damage control mode even as it braces for a tough contest with Congress.
Former Dy CM KS Eshwarappa has decided to contest as an independent candidate from Shivamogga; former minister JC Madhu Swamy refused to campaign for the party in Tumakuru; local leaders openly expressed their ire against the candidate in Davanagere; and Koppal MP’s supporters threw stones at the party office. Chamrajnagar MP Srinivas Prasad’s son-in-law, who was a BJP ticket aspirant, is cosying up to Congress leaders….. It’s a long list.
However, hardly any of them seem to have great damage potential. Even Eshwarappa, who is miffed over his son not getting the ticket to contest from the Haveri LS seat, is a tall leader in the party, but his damage potential is limited. He remains loyal to the party and its ideology. He has never switched sides in his political career spanning over four decades. But, to his disadvantage, his numerically strong Kuruba community across Karnataka seems to be solidly backing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. In 2023, the BJP denied a ticket to Eshwarappa to contest assembly polls and now he is striving to provide a political platform for his son.
Party insiders hope things will change once electioneering picks up pace.
The BJP has already changed gears with a blitzkrieg campaign by the PM in AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge’s home district Kalaburagi. It was his first election rally in Karnataka. Modi listed out his government’s achievements and “Modi ki Guarantees”. He lashed out at Congress and accused it of using Karnataka as a “family ATM”. Interestingly, he was addressing the rally in Kalaburagi exactly at the same time when the ECI was announcing the schedule for the elections.
Hours before the PM’s rally in his hometown, Kharge announced Congress’ “Shramik Nyay” and “Hissedari Nyay” guarantees in Bengaluru. While those are the assurances for the 2024 LS polls, in Karnataka, the party is banking mainly on the ongoing implementation of its five guarantee schemes. In the last few days, CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar have been addressing a series of conventions of beneficiaries of the government’s flagship schemes. Such conventions are being held in all districts and taluks.
Congress seems to be trying to emulate the UP model when the ‘labharthi’ (beneficiary) factor emerged as a new block in the 2022 assembly polls.
The Congress perceives the guarantees as a game-changer in Karnataka and is going the whole hog on that front. But, it has its own set of challenges.
It was the first party in the state to start the process of shortlisting candidates in September 2023. Ironically, it is yet to announce candidates in 21 seats, including that of Kharge and Siddaramaiah’s home districts.
Congress leaders may have been waiting to see how things could pan out after BJP and JDS announced their candidates so that they could exploit the fault lines and come up with better strategies. But, the delay reflects poorly on its confidence and is bad for optics.
As the national parties fix the shortcomings in their strategies, stakes are very high for Janata Dal (Secular). The regional party appears to have settled for a few seats in Old Mysuru, apart from former PM HD Deve Gowda’s son-in-law and noted cardiologist Dr CN Manjunath contesting as a BJP candidate.
Indications from the ground suggest that the JDS faces a tough fight even on its home turfs, Hassan and Mandya. In Hassan, the party faces difficulties in getting support from BJP workers, whose politics was built on opposing JDS. The Congress candidate Shreyas Patel also appears to be formidable. He had lost assembly polls against HD Revanna in Holenarsipura by a narrow margin of 3,000 votes. His grandfather Puttaswamy Gowda had defeated Deve Gowda in assembly polls in 1989 and Lok Sabha polls in 1999. Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna is likely to be the JDS candidate in Hassan.
As things stand now, it is not going to be an easy fight for any party in any of the constituencies in Karnataka.
Ramu Patil
Senior Associate Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com