After the announcement of candidates, the political scene in Karnataka is heating up, competing with the mercury shooting up. The parties are trying to overcome the internal issues that could impact the results in some seats, while they shift gears on the campaigning front.
Congress was caught in a quagmire in Kolar, causing a major embarrassment for the party earlier this week when a few legislators openly threatened to resign if Food and Civil Supplies Minister KH Muniyappa’s son-in-law was fielded from the constituency. Although it decided to field a neutral candidate, the replay of 2019’s “Congress Vs Congress” cannot be ruled out.
Although the BJP-JDS combine will be looking to exploit Congress’ faultlines, not everything is hunky-dory in their camp either. As the nomination process has begun, the parties are racing against time to resolve internal issues swiftly, while intensifying their campaign.
Marking ‘trouble-shooter’ on his home turf
All eyes are on the Bengaluru Rural Lok Sabha segment — a mix of urban voters in Bengaluru, adjoining Ramanagara, and parts of Tumakuru districts. In 2019, it was the only seat won by Congress. Now, KPCC president and DyCM DK Shivakumar’s brother DK Suresh is seeking re-election. He is up against former PM HD Deve Gowda’s son-in-law Dr.CN Manjunath, a well-known cardiologist contesting on the BJP ticket.
BJP will be relying heavily on Bengaluru South and Rajarajeshwari Nagar assembly segments in the state capital, while the JDS hopes to get support in the Vokkaliga hinterland. Of the total of around 27 lakh voters, over 12 lakh are in two segments in the City.
Manjunath’s clean image, JDS’ full backing, BJP’s traditional support base, and the Modi factor will be key for the alliance. On the other hand, Suresh is a grassroots politician, well-connected even at the panchayat level, and has gained goodwill for his work during the Covid pandemic. In the end, it will be a contest between the families of Shivakumar and Gowda, the latter backed by the BJP. The fight is likely to go down to the wire.
CM’s prestige at stake
Winning in his home district Mysuru will be a matter of prestige for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. Also, Congress candidate M Laksmana is said to be his pick. BJP’s strategy of fielding Mysuru royal scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar seems to have put Congress on the backfoot. Debutant Yaduveer and his family have a good connect with voters that goes beyond political lines. He will be banking on goodwill for the royal family, along with the BJP-JDS support base. He is also reaching out to minorities. On its part, the Congress will be hoping for consolidation of minorities, backward classes, and Vokkaliga votes. Its candidate is a Vokkaliga. With JDS’ strong presence in the district, it would not be easy for Congress to consolidate the dominant Vokkaligas. Given the regional party leadership’s animosity against Siddaramaiah, they are likely to back Yaduveer to the hilt. With the CM’s direct involvement and the time he is giving to draw up Congress’s strategy, it is certainly going to be ‘battle royale’ in Mysuru. Winning Mysuru and neighboring Chamrajnagar segments will be crucial for Siddaramaiah’s leadership within the party.
The trouble within
In BJP stalwart BS Yediyurappa’s home district Shivamogga, the party is yet to resolve its internal differences. Former DyCM KS Eshwarappa’s stand of contesting as an independent candidate has brought an element of uncertainty to the BJP’s game-plan to retain the seat. Miffed over the denial of a ticket to his son KE Kantesh to contest from the neighboring Haveri-Gadag seat, the party veteran decided to contest independently to take on Yediyurappa’s son BY Raghavendra in Shivamogga. Raghavendra, the elder brother of state BJP chief BY Vijayendra is pitted against Congress’ Geetha Shivarajkumar, wife of Kannada actor Shivarajkumar and daughter of former CM S Bangarappa. Last time she had unsuccessfully contested on the JDS ticket.
Although BJP appears to be bullish about its prospects, Eshwarappa remaining in the contest can create some trouble for the party. Even a small number of BJP votes being divided will matter in a close contest. After making futile efforts to convince Eshwarappa, BJP leaders have now given up and are hoping that he will climb down. He may not have much damage potential and ultimately back off from the contest, but for the party, it’s bad optics.
It’s still Kharge’s election
AICC president and Rajya Sabha member M Mallikarjun Kharge is not contesting the LS polls this time. Perhaps, for the first time in several decades, Kalaburagi is witnessing elections — Assembly or Lok Sabha — without Kharge in the fray. But it is still considered as his election. His son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani is the Congress candidate and his son and minister Priyank Kharge is in charge of the polls. While Congress’ overall performance in his home state will be crucial to assert his leadership, it is all the more important for him to win back his home district that he had lost to Dr Umesh Jadhav in 2019.
Radhakrishna, whom many believe to be a backroom strategist for Kharge, is making his debut in electoral politics. While he is known in Congress circles, he is relatively new to the voters. Kharge and his contribution to the region is Congress’ trump card. Consolidation of minority votes, backing from Dalits, and a section of backward classes will be necessary for the party that also hopes to get support from a section of Lingayats. Jadhav will be banking on support from his Banjara community and BJP’s Lingayat support base, both of which are present in significant numbers. The BJP also hopes to gain from the Modi factor, drawing credit for infrastructure development and the Centre’s welfare projects.
Spotlight on Kumaraswamy
Since the regional party struck an alliance with BJP, the spotlight is on former CM HD Kumaraswamy and his role in the post-poll political scenario in the state and at the Centre. Now, as he is contesting from Mandya, all eyes are on the seat in the Old Mysuru region. His son Nikhil lost to BJP-backed independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh in the last elections when Kumaraswamy was the CM in the alliance government with Congress. After Hassan, probably Mandya is the most important seat for the regional party. The former CM is up against Congress’ Venkataramane Gowda, also known as ‘Star Chandru’. Congress is likely to make it an ‘outsider vs local’ election and put up a united front. JDS-BJP fighting as one cohesive unit will be crucial for Kumaraswamy as Congress goes all guns blazing.
The third generation fight
The Vokkaliga heartland Hassan is witnessing a battle between the grandsons of former PM HD Deve Gowda and former MP late G Puttaswamy Gowda. Puttaswamy had defeated Deve Gowda in the 1999 LS polls. The former’s grandson Shreyas M Patel’s entry into the contest has sparked excitement in the Congress camp. Shreyas lost in the 2023 assembly polls against HD Revanna in the JDS’ pocket borough Holenarasipura by a narrow margin. As anti-JDS forces are likely to unite, the regional party candidate and incumbent MP Prajwal Revanna will need full support from the alliance partner BJP. Although BJP-JDS are chanting the unity mantra at the top, it may not be easy to ensure the same on the ground in Hassan as local BJP leaders’ politics is built around fighting JDS.
Winning Hassan is not a mere electoral victory, but an existential necessity for JDS.
Ramu Patil
Senior Associate Editor
ramu@newindianexpress.com