BENGALURU: Results of byelections to the Legislative Assembly from Sandur, Shiggaon and Channapanta constituencies, which will be declared on Saturday, are unlikely to have any drastic impact on the ruling Congress in the state as it has 136 MLAs.
However, the stakes are high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, his deputy DK Shivakumar, JDS leader and Union minister HD Kumaraswamy and BJP state president BY Vijayendra.
Counting of votes will start at 8 am and the results will be out by noon. Despite exit polls and political analysts predicting one seat each for Congress, BJP and JDS, Siddaramaiah and Vijayendra have asserted that their parties will win all three. A whitewash for Congress or NDA will certainly be a setback for them, but that is unlikely to happen, according to analysts.
The poll outcome in Channapatna will decide the political future of former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who lost two back to back polls. If he wins this time, it will help him emerge as a youth icon of JDS and also of a section of the Vokkaliga community in the Old Mysore region.
His opponent CP Yogeshwara of Congress, who is also seeking a political comeback after two consecutive defeats in Channapatna, has predicted that it will be a photo finish. Whether the sympathy factor will work for Nikhil or Housing Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan’s alleged racist remarks against Kumaraswamy dent the prospects of Yogeshwar will be known on Saturday.
The stakes are high for Shivakumar as he waged a proxy war against Kumaraswamy to win over Vokkaliga voters. Given the intensity of the contest, betting was rampant with even Nikhil advising his supporters against it.
It is a battle of prestige in Shiggaon for former CM and Haveri MP Basavaraj Bommai as his son Bharat Bommai is in the fray as a BJP candidate. He made his political debut here after his father vacated the seat after winning the Lok Sabha elections. Congress has fielded Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan.
Congress seems to have an edge in Sandur, which was held by E Tukaram, according to analysts. He vacated the seat after he won the Lok Sabha elections from Ballari. Tukaram’s wife E Annapoorna is contesting against BJP’s Bangaru Hanumanthu here.
Silent voters hold the key in Channapatna, shows survey
A post-poll study conducted by noted psephologist Prof Sandeep Shastri, Veena Devi and Nagesh KL for Centre for Policy and Governance Studies at NMIT, Bengaluru, and Lokniti-CSDS, predicted that about one-fourth voters, who did not disclose their preference of candidates, will decide the fate of the candidates in Channapatna.
A random sampling of 502 voters from 20 polling stations with at least 25 respondents each was done. It revealed that a little over one-fourth (27%) of voters did not disclose their choice of candidates. Among those who declared their choice, Congress had an 11 percentage point lead over the JDS candidate representing the NDA (42 to 31%). Vokkaliga respondents formed close to half of the samples (48%) and one-fourth (24%) of them stated that they voted for Congress. About 51% indicated that they voted for the JDS (NDA) candidate. Remaining 25% of voters did not disclose to whom they voted and they hold the key.
According to the study, Congress appeared to have done better among voters from non-Vokkaliga OBC, SC and Muslim communities. JDS had a slight edge over its rival among young voters, while middle-aged voters preferred Congress. Votes of the elderly people were more or less evenly distributed, the study stated.