For the Congress party and its government in Karnataka, which were facing severe headwinds, the assembly bypoll results have come as a big morale boost. The 3:0 emphatic victory could help arrest the downward slide of the narrative against the government, especially after a series of controversies and backlash over the Waqf Board claiming agricultural lands and the move to reassess the BPL cards.
More importantly, it provided a much-needed relief for the embattled Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who is under the scanner for the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) sites allotment case and facing flak over a multi-crore scam in the ST Development Corporation. The electoral victory would not have any bearing on the ongoing probes by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the Lokayukta Police, and the Special Investigation Team (SIT). On that front, it remains an uphill task for the CM.
However, the bypoll win would help him to assert his position within the party and send out a strong message to the opposition, which is demanding his resignation. To some extent, it could undo the damage to his image and silence his detractors within the party.
Given the drubbing the party received in neighbouring Maharashtra, the Karnataka by-poll win has come as a face-saver for the Congress central leadership. This could give Siddaramaiah more leverage to effect the Cabinet reshuffle which many in the party believe is in the offing.
Although local factors played a major role in the Congress’ win in all three seats that went to polls on November 13, the Grand Old Party fought the elections under the leadership of the CM and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, with the state government’s guarantee schemes as a major polling plank.
In Channapatna, the fiercely fought election was seen as a fight between Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy and his bete noire, State Congress president DK Shivakumar. It was a contest to reassert the leadership in the Vokkaliga-dominated segment.
Shivakumar, who is eyeing the top post made an all-out effort to regain the hold that appeared to have slipped away after his brother DK Suresh, who lost to NDA candidate Dr CN Manjunath in Bangalore Rural Lok Sabha seat earlier this year.
On several occasions, Shivakumar had declared himself as a candidate. On its own, Congress hardly had any base in the segment. It was a stronghold of the JDS, while Yogeshwara enjoys a solid support base. Shivakumar’s gambit of getting CP Yogeshwara to the party that too after the bypoll dates were announced worked well.
For JDS it was a prestigious election. They had to retain the seat vacated by Kumaraswamy after he was elected as MP from Mandya. His son Nikhil was the candidate. Along with his father Kumaraswamy, his grandfather, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, too had extensively campaigned for him. Channapatna turned out to be the third successive defeat for the actor-turned-politician from the JDS’ most influential family. He had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Mandya and 2024 Assembly elections from Ramanagara.
The Congress victory can be mainly attributed to the goodwill for Yogeshwara in the constituency and the BJP’s failure to retain him in the party. What was on the ground a contest between JDS and Yogeshwara was a fight between Kumaraswamy and Shivakumar at the top. The victory has further strengthened Shivakumar’s position.
Like Kumaraswamy, former Chief Minister and BJP MP Basavaraj Bommai too faced a setback. BJP was fully confident of winning Shiggaon. Many in the party considered Bommai’s son Bharat’s victory as a foregone conclusion. Initially, Congress’s decision to give the ticket to Yasir Khan Pathan was seen as a blunder. As the result showed, the BJP failed to put its act together, while Congress successfully executed its strategy of consolidating its traditional support base.
Wining Sandur was more crucial for Congress for two reasons: it was the seat represented by the party, and the ST corporation scam was one main issue. BJP leader and MLA Former minister Gali Janardhan Reddy was hoping to make his presence felt in the party by winning the seat. But, E Tukaram, who vacated the seat after he won the Lok Sabha elections from Ballari managed to ensure his wife E Annapoorna’s victory.
Congress sees the results as an endorsement of its 18-month rule, guarantee schemes, and the leadership of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. After its not-so-impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections, Congress managed to make a comeback and prove its ability to win elections.
The results could spell more trouble for the faction-ridden BJP state unit. Despite the government facing several challenges and mired in a series of controversies, the opposition failed to capitalize on it. The BJP state leadership could come under fire for its failure to gauge the situation on the ground.
For now, Congress could use this opportunity to reboot the administration, take control of the narrative, and make the most of its added strength in the Assembly. They will go into the winter session of the state legislature starting December 9 in Belagavi brimming with confidence. The BJP has to introspect and put its state unit in order.