BENGALURU: Researchers have sounded alarm bells at the falling fertility rate in peninsular India, which will have a long-lasting impact on their demography, economy, social fabric and political representation at the Centre. “All South Indian states are staring at an irreversible crisis of falling fertility rates far below the national average of 2.1. Tamil Nadu has the lowest fertility rate at 1.4, followed by 1.5 in Andhra Pradesh (AP), Telangana and Kerala, and 1.6 in Karnataka.
This is catastrophic as it is irreversible and has a long-lasting impact on demography, economy and political representation of these states in Parliament,” said Srinivas Goli, associate professor, Department of Fertility & Social Demography, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai. IIPS is an autonomous institution under the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.
As per the fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS5) data, only three states -- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand -- have Total Fertility Rates (the average number of live childbirths a woman will have in her life) more than the replacement level of 2.1.
Recently, AP Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu and Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin drew attention to falling fertility rates in their states, and urged families to have more children.
“No country in the world has succeeded in revoking birth rates, despite huge financial incentives to have children. South Indian states are equivalent to many developed countries in the world, but not in terms of per capita income, standard of living and human development indicators like health and education.
Though their contribution to the country’s exchequer is much more than the rest of India, they have lost out on their revenue shares from the Centre because of their lower populations. Fertility rate below 1.8 for a very long time will have a negative bearing on their economy,” said the demographer.
‘Falling fertility rate in south states will lower parliamentary representation’
Another serious impact of the falling fertility rate will be “lowering of parliamentary representation of these states once the delimitation of parliamentary boundaries is reconstituted post the new census, possibly in 2026,” added the researcher.
He quoted data from the Population Projections for India and States (2011-2036), as per which AP will lose five seats in the LS, from the current 25 to 20; Karnataka will lose two, from 28 to 26; Kerala’s representation will go down from 20 to 14; Telangana will slip from 17 to 15 and the biggest loser will be Tamil Nadu, which will lose nine parliamentary seats, and go from 39 to 30 LS seats.
Goli added that falling birth rates raise the burden of ageing population and is a disadvantage for economic growth. “The southern states also have a high (15) old-age dependency ratio (number of older persons aged above 60 years per 100 working adults between the age group of 15 and 59 years),” he explained.
Though revoking fertility rates is not possible, there is a way forward. “Improve gender egalitarian attributes within families, where women feel secure about having children without paying huge motherhood penalties and losing their time and personal goals.
In a highly patriarchal society like India, it is not easy to ensure gender egalitarianism anywhere soon,” said the researcher. He added that South Indian states “must engage more in building health and activating aging through healthcare reforms and social security.
This will not only reduce economic and care burden on the state but also help states reap silver dividend (economic and social benefits of an ageing society),” added Goli.