BENGALURU: As Channapatna gears up for the bypoll, all eyes are on NDA candidate Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who is making his third attempt at securing a political victory.
The son of state JDS president and Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy, Nikhil filed his nomination papers on Friday.
With two prior defeats casting a shadow, the key question remains: Will this election mark a breakthrough win or yet another setback for the young JDS leader?
Nikhil expressed confidence, assuring his supporters,“People will support and bless me.”
This optimism was echoed by senior JDS and BJP leaders, such as Leader of Opposition in the Assembly R Ashoka, who projected a victory margin of 30,000 to 40,000 votes for Nikhil. Ashoka’s confidence stems partly from historical data, a. Kumaraswamy had previously won from Channapatna with a 15,000-vote lead in a three-cornered fight.
Ashoka believes that this election’s alliance between the BJP and JDS, combined with anti-incumbency sentiment against the Congress, could give Nikhil a solid advantage. Former CM and senior BJP leader BS Yediyurappa also voiced optimism about Nikhil’s chances.
However, this confidence is not universally shared within the BJP-JDS coalition. Although Nikhil’s rally attracted an estimated 20,000 attendees—5,000 more than the 15,000 reportedly at his rival CP Yogeshwara’s gathering—party insiders caution that the crowd size may not translate to actual votes. Former Congress MP DK Suresh and CM Siddaramaiah have openly expressed confidence in Yogeshwara winning the bypoll.
Channapatna’s demographics add complexity to the electoral picture. The constituency comprises approximately 1,04,000 Vokkaligas, 28,000 Muslims, 38,000 Scheduled Castes, 6,000 Scheduled Tribes, and a significant number of other backward community voters. While analysts expect the Vokkaliga vote to split between the two candidates, Congress is anticipated to gain substantial support from minorities, SCs, and backward community voters, giving an edge to Yogeshwara.
Political analysts remain divided in their projections. Some predict an easy win for Yogeshwara, citing Congress’ historical influence in the region and the potential backing from a wide voter base. Others argue that the JDS-BJP alliance could offset Congress’s advantage, especially if dissatisfaction with the Ruling party drives undecided voters towards Nikhil.
While JDS leaders remain cautiously hopeful, they acknowledge that even a loss could potentially build a sympathy wave around Nikhil, positioning him more favorably for future elections.
Nikhil’s political journey thus far has been challenging. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Nikhil lost to independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh from Mandya despite the JDS having seven of the eight MLAs in the district then. He faced another loss in Ramanagara, where he was defeated by an unknown Congress candidate, Iqbal Hussain, by a margin of close to 10,000 votes.
With this third campaign underway, Channapatna’s voters will ultimately decide if this is Nikhil’s moment of redemption or another setback in his political journey.