BENGALURU: The latest political joke circulating in Karnataka captures the mood succinctly: Siddaramaiah should govern on odd dates, and DK Shivakumar on even dates! Beneath the joke lies a more serious concern -- distrust and a power struggle within the Congress that could be a replay of political instability in Karnataka. The two leaders are expected to meet again over breakfast on Tuesday.
Observers are drawing parallels with the 2008-13 BJP government, which was plagued by internal rebellion, resort politics and factional skirmishes, which eventually culminated in the BJP’s ouster in the 2013 Assembly elections. It offers a clear lesson: prolonged infighting rarely ends well for the ruling party in Karnataka, as voters reject instability, especially when it appears self-inflicted.
Political analyst BS Murthy said, “Older political watchers will recall the fate of the Janata Dal in the 1980s and 1990s. Continued power struggles hollowed out the party from within, leading to splits and eventual irrelevance. Karnataka’s electorate has demonstrated time and again that it has little patience for leaders who are more invested in outmanoeuvring each other than governing effectively.’’
According to party insiders, a handful of Congress leaders are reportedly stoking the current dissent just as they did in Punjab, where the ruling party slid into oblivion. Former CM Captain Amarinder Singh had boldly named those responsible for the turmoil.
While both Siddaramaiah and DKS have denied any leadership crisis, murmurs within the party suggest otherwise. Siddaramaiah continues to command the support of a significantly larger section of the Congress Legislature Party. DKS is believed to have a relatively small group of loyalists, perhaps not more than 25 MLAs, according to some estimates.
The names most frequently associated with his camp include Iqbal Hussain, Basavaraj, Nayana, Balakrishna and Ranganath, hardly the numbers required to challenge a sitting chief minister with a strong base.
At the heart of the friction lies a deeper structural issue. Siddaramaiah is widely viewed as a mass leader with a broad social coalition behind him, while Shivakumar, despite his organisational strengths and political acumen, is still attempting to consolidate his position as a caste-based leader. The asymmetry of influence and public appeal is evident, and complicates any push for a leadership change.
Retired Professor of Political Science PS Jayaramu said, “I see a deeper caste/class war between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. This truce is going to be short-lived. A weakened high command may be incapable of bringing the two powerful leaders together.’’
Analysts warn that if the Congress fails to arrest this drift, it risks undermining its own government and electoral prospects. The upcoming Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA) elections will be a critical test. A poor performance in Bengaluru could have a cascading effect, weakening the party’s bargaining power, emboldening dissidents and giving the opposition a potent narrative. For now, the leadership tussle may still be a shadow bout, but if left unaddressed, the Congress could find itself facing disillusioned voters, who will not give them a second chance.