Economic upsurge alongside the steep decline in political culture has been the hallmark of Karnataka for long, and the year 2025 is likely to see more of this trend. As the economy is poised to maintain a steady growth, state politics is likely to remain mired in corruption and caste and religious tension.
One complaint against the current regime ever since it came to power in 2023 has been that it has so far been unable to convince the people that its governance has in any way been different from the BJP government it ousted. It has not been able to give a corruption-free government, nor has it been able to act firmly against communal forces in the state. This is surprising given that the Congress made corruption and communalism of the previous BJP government the main issues in the 2023 elections.
Will 2025 be different? Unlikely.
Acting against political corruption would require Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to send out a clear message to his cabinet colleagues and officials against indulging in any corrupt practices and to take firm action whenever there is a violation.
This is difficult for at least two reasons. First, Siddaramaiah does not seem to have firm control over his ministerial colleagues in the same way as during his first term between 2013 and 2018. Many of his ministers are strong regional chieftains and they are capable of winning elections on their own without the backing of the chief minister or the party.
They would do everything within their reach to secure themselves financially for the next contest rather than worry about the image of the government. Second, the chief minister himself came under the cloud over the alleged irregularities in connection with his wife receiving compensatory sites in Mysuru for a piece of land that a government agency acquired from her. Although prima facie there appears to be no evidence to implicate the chief minister in this case and the opposition BJP has been obviously trying to play it up, these developments have diminished the chief minister’s moral authority to question corrupt practices of his colleagues.
As far as the Congress government’s soft-pedalling of communal politics of the BJP and its frontal organisations is concerned, it is the result of the party’s ideological ambiguity.
This calls for a thorough secular orientation of the top brass and the rank and file of the party which is unlikely to happen in the short run. Thus, no major change can be expected in the government’s approach towards handling communalism too, which is only going to grow as that remains the sole issue for BJP to consolidate its position in the state.
Much against the predictions of the doomsayers, the state’s five welfare guarantee schemes have not financially ruined the state, at least so far. The state economy is surging ahead by registering a GSDP growth of 10.2 per cent, significantly surpassing the national average of 8.2 per cent. Tax revenue has been showing upward trends.
As of September 2024, Karnataka recorded a 10 per cent year-on-year increase in GST collections. Investments are pouring in. Departments such as Industries and Commerce and Information Technology and Biotechnology have remained the most active agencies of the state holding roadshows to attract investment promises from both India and abroad. Even the Revenue Department, which has been generally a dormant agency of the state, has been actively pushing a reform agenda with the objective of promoting ease of business for investors and ease of life for the common people.
The controversial guarantee schemes are sure to continue unaffected. The political murmurs against the welfare schemes, heard even from ruling party legislators, have receded after the Congress registered an impressive win in the by-elections held to the three Assembly seats, wresting one seat each from the BJP and the JDS in the process.
This is seen, among other things, as an endorsement of the five guarantee schemes. However, the welfare agenda of the government seems to have got stuck with these schemes. Political rhetoric has it that these schemes are not just welfare doles, but are aimed at building a welfare-centric Karnataka model of economic development.
However, there has not been any concrete thinking in this direction and the new year is unlikely to see anything change because such a reformulation of the welfare agenda requires a fresh approach to development imagination, and it is a long-drawn process.
The government is going to face a tough time ahead in managing multiple social tensions which have been simmering through the past two years. Mainly, it has the unenviable task of releasing the findings of the 10-year-old caste census figures.
While OBC and SC/ST groups have been demanding the release of the findings, the dominant Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities are sternly opposing it as they have sensed that the census has found their actual numbers much smaller than what has always been believed to be. The second major issue is about the demand for sub-quota for the Left Hand Dalits.
This issue might be taken to a logical conclusion in 2025, but it is certainly not going to be a smooth affair. And then, there is the ticklish question of addressing the demand from a numerically strong sub-sect of the Lingayats called Panchamashalis for their inclusion in the Category 2A of the Other Backward Classes’ List. This is obviously being opposed by the OBCs.
Five months into the new year, the Congress Government will enter its third year in office. The third year, being the middle year of the five-year term, is the time when the government will have the last chance to take some tough decisions and prove that it is different from the one that it replaced two years ago. The fourth and fifth year are too close to the next elections for any government to be decisive except for announcing some freebies. So, the year 2025 is crucial, but has the government got the mettle?