BENGALURU: Karnataka is gradually becoming an adult-dominated state, with people below 18 years of age gradually on the decline, when compared with the young voting population and number of senior citizens.
The Elector-Population Ratio (EPR) from the Office of the Chief Electoral Officer, Karnataka, showed the state’s ratio as of January 2025 as 70.61. This is higher than the national average of 65.
But there are variations within the state. Some districts have a higher EPR. The ratio in Chikkamagaluru district is 85.84, followed by Kodagu with 84.25. Other districts more or less toe the state average line.
“The EPR shows the number of electors in the state. The idea of preparing it regularly is to know if all the people above 18 years of age (voting age) are included in the rolls or not. The present EPR data shows the number of electors in the state is high, the elderly and people above 18 years are more than the young and newborn. However, this does not give the accurate population as the base for calculation (actual population of the state) is not accurately available in the absence of the latest census report,” explained Manoj Kumar Meena, Chief Electoral Officer, Karnataka.
Assembly constituency data from the department showed that Chamundeshwari in Mysuru district has been recording the highest EPR of 90.98% in the state since 2021. It dropped to 88.30 in 2023 and then rose to 97.94 in 2025. A rise has also been noted in Chikkamagaluru -- in 2021, the EPR was 84.15, which increased to 89.15 in 2025.
There has been a drastic jump in Virajpet assembly constituency in Kodagu, where the EPR of 78.58 in 2021 increased to 82.73 in 2025. A similar pattern can be seen in Udupi’s Karkala constituency -- from 80.91 in 2021 to to 82.60 in 2025.
Taking note of this, the Election Commission of India has sought an explanation from Karnataka on the high EPR in specific locations — Chamundeshwari, Chikkamagaluru and Nagamangala. EC officials also noted that these figures raised concerns on the seemingly low share of the under-18 population.
“As part of our assessment, we sought explanations from district-level officials on the reasons for high EPR in some districts. They cited migration, low birth rate and under-registration of the voting population, and also stated that due to oversized population projections, the EPR remained abnormally high in low-growth districts and low in high-growth/ migrant-heavy districts,” explained an official from the Office of the Chief Electoral Officer, Karnataka.
The official, who does not wish to be named, said that further interaction with people to understand the reason for low birth rate revealed economic conditions and even the need to attain professional excellence.
Citing an example, the official said: “In one village in Chikkamagaluru, of the 100 people we counted, we noted that 90 were aged 45-70 years, and there were just 10 who were below the age of 18. This being the case, some districts in Karnataka are quickly moving towards the very low growth stage.”
Bengaluru’s unique demographics
According to experts from the Election Commission and demographers, the situation in Bengaluru is different and unique. It has a high population and the highest workforce. But this does not indicate that all are voters and part of the electoral roll. Thus, Bengaluru’s EPR is below the state and national average. Bengaluru
Urban is 63.21, BBMP South 51.78, BBMP North 54.93, BBMP Central 52.94, and Bengaluru Rural is 70.18.
“Bengaluru houses a large number of young people. It is a youth-centric city with a good number of elderly people and children. But most of them are migratory. They stay here, with voting rights elsewhere. Healthcare facilities and economic growth in Bengaluru is very high, but at the same time the fertility rate is on a gradual decline. A separate study on Bengaluru city is needed,” they said.
Impact on political clout, workforce
Experts added that the EPR is declining all over the state. One of its effects will also be on the number of seats Karnataka will have in Parliament, when compared to other Indian states, especially those in North India, where the population is rising.
This is because the population decides the number of elected representatives and hence, the number of seats. But the bigger concern, experts point out, is the reduction in workforce over the next two decades and the rise in the number of dependents (senior citizens). They point out that Kerala and Tamil Nadu are heading swiftly towards this scenario, and Karnataka is following on similar lines.
With the delay in the Census exercise from the Union government, the EPR should be looked at as an indicator by administrators and political parties to plan policies to channelise future growth.
“It also shows that fertility rate is declining. But the share of the young population has increased. While India has the highest workforce presently, which is a matter of pride, it is also a matter of concern for the future. Variations in EPR within the districts of Karnataka are also an indication of the economic and health variations in the state,” said Purushottam M Kulkarni, demographer and former professor of Population Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
Transition to a grey society
Demographers pointed out that the transition — the rise in the elderly population — cannot be termed good or bad. Every country goes through this. But it is important to understand what it indicates and how the information is utilised.
Kulkarni said this transition raises the concern of how the government will support the increasing elderly population. The number of old-age homes/centres and facilities will need to be improved, the healthcare sector will need to be strengthened. The quality of education and the workforce will need to be improved. While the migrating population will meet the rising aging concern in Karnataka, society as a whole will need to address it.
Demographers stated that India is now progressing to what China and Japan already are. India’s population is around 145 crore and Karnataka’s population (as on January 6, as per Election Commission) is 7,86,86,044. By 2030, the number of senior citizens in Karnataka will increase from 8% to 12%.
Family planning successful
CM Lakshmana, Professor and Head, Population Research Centre at the Institute of Social and Economic Change, said, as per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5, the fertility rate in Karnataka is 1.7 and the findings of NFHS-6 data (which is yet to be released) indicate that Karnataka’s average will be around 1.6. This is less than the national average of 2.1 in NFHS-5, and 2 in NFHS-6. The global average is 1.8.
The decline in fertility is because of the success of the national and state health mission programmes. Families in urban and rural areas and even in slums are now taking successful steps for family planning. Earlier, families wanted a male and female child, but now they follow the dictum that male or female, the child should be healthy and successful.
Some say the stage of zero-fertility will happen by 2080, but the stage of complete irreplaceable fertility is far-fetched. There is negative fertility, Lakshmana said. He added that the concern the governments should immediately look at is 20 years down the line, when the present workforce will age and reduce. Thus, inter-state migration should be encouraged, and international migration arrested for economic and demographic security, he added.
The yet to be released NHFS-6 report noted that there is low fertility in the districts of Dakshina Kannada, Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu, Hassan, Shivamogga, Bengaluru Urban and Mysuru. There is moderate or mid-level fertility in Tumakuru, Gadag, Davangere, Kolar and Mysuru, and high fertility in parts of Raichur and Kalaburagi. The state government needs to focus more on North Karnataka regions under Article 371-J, demographers said.
Economic, educational factors
Economic status and better education have a direct correlation to the size of the family. Women are no longer dependent and suffer family punishment. They have become decision-makers and this drives fertility and the size of the family. Thus, when the economic condition of a region improves, and not just the district’s infrastructure, the health of families also improves, said Srinivas Goli, Associate Professor in Demography, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai.
Goli added that the fertility transition started 200 years ago globally, and is a natural cycle. Some countries like China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and now France, also are experiencing lowest fertility. This transition is irreplaceable as, even if incentives are offered, many families, especially women, are not coming forward to accept it.
Parmod Kumar, acting director at the Institute of Social and Economic Change, said that while low fertility is an indicator of economic development, it is also a matter of concern. “It does not mean that countries, states and people should not develop/ grow. Western countries have started looking at mechanisation as a tool to address the shortage of labour and we are also moving towards the same.
The population growth rate in North India is higher than in South India. Population growth in North Karnataka is higher than in southern and coastal Karnataka, and in fact, growth rate of Karnataka is higher than Kerala. Reversing it is a personal choice and financial incentive schemes have no impact,” he said.