BENGALURU: If February temperatures appear to be soaring in Karnataka, then listen to what the weatherman has to say: it’s going to be a harsh summer from March to May, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast.
As per a long range forecast issued by the department on Thursday, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal from March to May 2026 in most parts of India, except some regions of south peninsular India which include Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
The IMD has issued a red alert for most parts of north interior Karnataka during March-May 2026 with a forecast of severe heat wave conditions. The heat wave duration, however, will be of 3-6 days, followed by a break in weather conditions. The weatherman has also forecast above normal minimum temperatures over most parts of coastal and north interior Karnataka for the same period.
According to IMD officials, “Above normal maximum temperature is predicted for entire Karnataka from March to May 2026. Maximum probability (65% to 75%) is predicted over costal Karnataka.”
The IMD points out that temperatures have started to soar in February itself, and it will continue to rise in the coming months. Citizens are advised to stay cautious during hot and dry spells in the coming days, till end of February.
During a meeting on heat wave preparedness and forecast review, organised by the IMD head office on Thursday, the current El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ESNO), a recurring climate pattern involving changes in temperatures of water in the Pacific Ocean, was discussed.
The impact of ESNO on the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climatic condition defined by differences between sea temperatures, was also discussed. The impact of ESNO and IOD conditions and the forecast were studied. The heat wave and climatology over the Indian region was also detailed and climatological heat wave durations from 1993 were assessed.