Is October 2026 a harbinger of May 2028?

For Congress, a rising vote share that still produces zero seats is the most frustrating outcome. It suggests that the party is growing but not fast enough to beat a consolidated opposition.
BJP leaders, including LoPs Chalavadi Narayanaswamy and R Ashoka, Chitradurga MP Govind Karjol, former CM BS Yediyurappa and others celebrate with the newly elected NDA MLCs, at the BJP office in Bengaluru on Wednesday.
BJP leaders, including LoPs Chalavadi Narayanaswamy and R Ashoka, Chitradurga MP Govind Karjol, former CM BS Yediyurappa and others celebrate with the newly elected NDA MLCs, at the BJP office in Bengaluru on Wednesday. Photo | Express
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BENGALURU: “Ballot paper or EVM, the people’s choice remains clear,” read BJP’s Facebook post after NDA took all four Karnataka Legislative Council seats and left the ruling Congress with none. The social media post was directly aimed at Congress and other opposition parties, which are complaining for long about electronic voting machines, SIR etc. The victory of NDA candidates is convincing.

In Bangalore Teachers’ constituency, JDS’ AP Ranganath trailed Congress’ Puttanna by nearly 200 first-preference votes in round one, then overturned the deficit to win by close to 1,000 first preference votes after round four.

In Southeast Graduates’, the largest of the four constituencies, BJP’s KM Suresh beat Congress’ Shashi Hulikuntemutt by about 24,000 votes, a decisive margin.

In West Graduates’, SV Sankanur won by a little over 9,000 votes. In Northeast Teachers’, BJP’s Shashil Namoshi again beat Sharanappa Mathur, whom he had defeated six years ago.

The Congress’ defence came from its media cell chief and former MLC Ramesh Babu. “These seats have been contested for 30 or 40 years, and Congress polled more votes this time than in any of the past six-seven elections,” he said.

While earlier contests were triangular, this one was straight. “It is a story of how two parties opposing Congress combined forces,” he said. This proved that the BJP-JDS alliance can convert two partial vote bases into one winning bloc, at least among the educated, organised electorate of graduates and teachers. But can it work for the state and general elections is the big question.

For Congress, a rising vote share that still produces zero seats is the most frustrating outcome. It suggests that the party is growing but not fast enough to beat a consolidated opposition.

BJP leaders, including LoPs Chalavadi Narayanaswamy and R Ashoka, Chitradurga MP Govind Karjol, former CM BS Yediyurappa and others celebrate with the newly elected NDA MLCs, at the BJP office in Bengaluru on Wednesday.
Modi taunts Congress over ballot paper after MLC polls rout as party dares him to ditch EVMs

BJP’s Ravi Kumar called the result “a reflection of the failure of the government and administration.” On Congress’ improved vote tallies, he conceded the point and shrugged, saying, “Yes, still we won, didn’t we?”

BJP leader and former MLC Abdul Azeem, a former chairman of the Karnataka Minority Commission, called the results a reflection of the people’s mood for 2028.

But political analyst BS Murthy disagreed. Council seats for graduates and teachers are decided by a tiny, specialised, self-selecting electorate, a world away from the general voter in Old Mysuru, Kalyana-Karnataka or Mumbai-Karnataka, he said. The Assembly elections are 21 months away, an eternity in Karnataka politics, he added.

He also noted that Upper House results across the country have been mixed for both sides. He wanted to know how the BJP explain losing both MLC seats from Varanasi, the Prime Minister’s stronghold? If MLC results are a national barometer, BJP must accept the Varanasi reading along with the Karnataka one, he said. Parties cannot treat these elections as a referendum when they win and as a local quirk when they lose, he added.

On Bengaluru Teachers’ result, Murthy said that Ranganath, who had lost twice to Puttanna, may have benefited from a sympathy factor.

For BJP and JDS, the lesson is that alliance arithmetic works and that the Congress government is beatable. For Congress, the lesson is harder: rising vote share is not a strategy, and the party needs either to split its opponents’ coalition or to widen its own.

For voters, the lesson is humility. A four-seat sweep by a few lakh educated electors tells us who is organised better in October 2026, not who will govern Karnataka in 2028.

BJP leaders, including LoPs Chalavadi Narayanaswamy and R Ashoka, Chitradurga MP Govind Karjol, former CM BS Yediyurappa and others celebrate with the newly elected NDA MLCs, at the BJP office in Bengaluru on Wednesday.
'Will take corrective measures after reviewing results': CM DK Shivakumar after Congress loses four MLC seats

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