Prospects of normal monsoon brighten

Published: 13th September 2012 11:54 AM  |   Last Updated: 13th September 2012 11:54 AM   |  A+A-


Reviving hopes of a normal monsoon, deficiency of south-west monsoon rainfall in the state has come down to 21 per cent. Compared to the 43 per cent deficiency in the beginning of August, monsoon has made a strong comeback in late August and September.

Against a normal rainfall of 188.6 cm, the state got only 147.9 cm rainfall till Wednesday. June and July, two prominent months of monsoon season, were the worst months in the season with 31 percent and 50 percent deficient rainfall respectively. However, rainfall showed an increasing trend from August where the State got 20 per cent excess rainfall. In September, the state got 86 per cent excess rainfall so far.

Except Thiruvananthapuram and Wayanad districts, all other parts of the state received widespread rain since August. Wayanad (-48 percent) and Thiruvanathapuram (-39 percent) showed considerable shortfall in receiving rains.

There is a drastic change in the monsoon scenario of the state. By the end of June, the first month of the season, all the districts had deficient rainfall.

However, rainfall has picked up in Kannur, Idukki, Kasargod, Kozhikode, Palakkad and Thrissur districts and now they fall in the normal category. Lakshadweep received 26 percent excess rainfall in the monsoon season.  India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expecting another spell of rainfall by Saturday. K Santhosh, director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said that monsoon was showing an increasing trend from August. 

‘’Monsoon shortfall will be made up in the coming days. However, according to the latest monsoon forecast, a 10 percent decrease in normal rainfall is expected  this season,’’ he said.

In IMD’s definition, a deviation between -19 to +19 is considered as normal. Accordingly, monsoon is near normal.  Meanwhile, south-west monsoon has not started withdrawing from Rajasthan. The normal withdrawal date is September 15.

The onset of north-east monsoon will coincide with the withdrawal of south- west monsoon.

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