Once Communist leader A K Gopalan even challenged India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to contest from the Kasargod Lok Sabha seat. Though, no official record for the statement exists, this statement has been referred by politicians cutting across party lines to project the Left’s might in Kasargod constituency. Going by history and statistics, Kasargod is predominantly a Left corridor, a seat where AKG was elected consecutively in 1957, 1962 and 1967 despite the campaigning taken out by Nehru himself . The Left had won 11 out of the 14 LS polls since 1957. And, there were moments of upset,too. Ramachandran Kadannapally, then a 26-year-old Law college student, defeated CPM’s E K Nayanar in 1971 and retained the seat in 1977 also. Since 1989, the Left has never tasted defeat in Kasargod.
This time, the story appears to be different. While the two-term sitting MP P Karunakaran expects a repeat of the 2004 win with a massive margin of over 1 lakh votes, it is a prestigious battle for UDF’s T Siddique. Though, a debutant, Siddique cannot settle for anything less than a win as it would dictate the prospects of his political career. Basking on the ‘NaMo wave’ and the popularity of K Surendran, the BJP has almost ensured that Kasargod is heading for little less than a triangular fight.
Kasargod’s Underdevelopment
From the plight of the railway station to the immaterialised potable water projects, poor infrastructure facilities of government hospitals to the unending woes of Endosulfan victims, the district presents a graveyard of hollow promises. There is a strong anti-incumbency against the two-term sitting MP as well as the UDF Government, in which Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is the second biggest ally. “Every election, each political party would shower promises. But, doesn’t follow it up with firm action. Whenever such civic issues are raised, both Fronts will put the onus on each other. Hence, we have decided to vote for a change,” says Haneefa, an autorickshaw driver and a local resident. Both the UDF and the LDF claim the credit for establishment of Kerala Central University, `200-crore package for Endosulfan and the construction of overbridges. While the UDF boasts of the constitution of the Prabhakaran Commission to tackle the underdevelopment of the district, LDF pooh-poohs the same by saying that it is an attempt by the state government to mislead the public. “The Prabhakaran Commission has suggested projects worth `12,000 crore. The UDF Government has not even disbursed `25 crore for the same, revealing that it is just a publicity stunt,” says K Kunhiraman, LDF’s Kasargod constituency secretary and Trikkaripur MLA.
The Communal Equation
Again, history reveals that the ‘caste card’ always played a major role in Kasargod constituency during the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress or the UDF has never won when they fielded a Muslim candidate. The LDF never tried a non-Hindu candidate in the constituency as well. Which implies, that if T Siddique wins then it will be etched in the annals of parliamentary election history. Apart from Hindus, Muslims and Christians, Kasargod has the unique distinction of having a sizeable strength of linguistic minorities, including Kannadigas and Tulus, among the population. This is the only reason why IUML has suggested the Congress to field a Hindu candidate in the constituency. “It is partly true. What we maintained was that instead of making Kasargod a reserved seat for Muslims of the party, a popular leader who is acceptable to all sections of society should be fielded, irrespective of his community. Siddique is a young, dynamic and popular leader, and hence we are not worried about the communal angle,” said IUML leader M C Kamarudeen. But, the voters refuse to buy this argument. “IUML’s theory is quite optimistic, but it has to be seen to be believed. Even the Hindus who have allegiance to the Congress will not vote,” says Hussain, a trader.
BJP Optimistic
With the strong anti-incumbency factor against the UDF and LDF, the ‘Modi wave’, and the disciplined, unprecedented election work, the BJP seems optimistic to the core. Kasargod and Nileswaram are the only two Assembly constituencies where the BJP has a strong presence and the party’s voteshare in 2009 was around 1.25 lakh. But, the BJP camp is expecting undercurrents in the CPM-dominated constituencies in such a big way that it expects it can get past the 3-lakh mark. Is the party becoming over-ambitious? “Given the response we are getting from CPM strongholds, the party is confident. Besides, BJP candidate K Surendran has an acceptance among the Muslim community as well. Hence, the usual way of the CPM and the IUML to join hands to defeat the BJP candidate will not work this time,” says BJP district president Suresh Kumar Shetty.
Curtailing Bogus Votes
It is strange, but the UDF camp claims that the strict action of the Election Commission (EC) to check bogus votes would help the UDF. “The CPM would not allow representatives of other parties to sit inside the polling booths in their villages. They would threaten the polling officials also and cast all the votes by themselves. Now, with the installation of cameras inside the sensitive booths, CPM will not be able to resort to such anti-democratic practices,” Kamaruddeen said. Refuting the charges, Kunhiraman said: “We have a strong organisational setup to ensure that all the votes in party villages are polled. However, it is a common scene in the UDF-dominated villages that men cast bogus votes wearing purdah.”
Spoiler Effect
Basheer Alady of BSP, Abdul Salam N U of SDPI, Abbas Mothalappara of All India Trinamool Congress, Ambalathara Kunhikrishnan of AAP and seven other Independent candidates will eat into the voteshare of three major candidates, making the triangular fight more tight.