THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Pinarayi Vijayan-led CPM has the last laugh at the end of the byelections in six assembly constituencies in the state, including Pala. Getting into the game with a scoreline of just 1-6, the LDF has emerged with three seats, a remarkable achievement for the ruling front which had suffered a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha polls a few months ago. The LDF wrested three UDF bastions -- Pala, Konni and Vattiyoorkavu. Though it lost its sitting seat in Aroor, the Left recorded substantial increase in its vote share.
The upset win in Konni and an emphatic victory in Vattiyoorkavu show signs of a gradual Left upsurge. As far as the Left is concerned, the most significant takeaway from the byelections would be the bursting of some popular myths that have been part of Kerala’s political arena for long.
On one hand, the results clearly indicate that the politically enlightened electorate has clearly denounced open calls by casteist organisations to vote as per their choice. In a way, it has been proved beyond doubt that any such interference to undermine a particular political party or front will not be tolerated by the electorate. Similarly, the much-touted Sabarimala factor had zilch effect on the masses.
That the Left managed to wrest two sitting seats of the Congress —Vattiyoorkavu and Konni — which have a strong Nair presence, despite an open call by the NSS leadership in favour of the UDF, stands testimony to this factor. The NSS’ open interference in electoral politics seems to have boomeranged. That there was a consolidation of minority votes in favour of the Left is also evident. On the other hand, the SNDP backing too did little for the CPM in Aroor, an otherwise traditional Left citadel.
Undoubtedly wresting back Konni — a Congress bastion for more than two decades where Congress’ Adoor Prakash had been winning since 1996 (after CPM’s A Padmakumar won from there in 1991) — could be termed the sweetest revenge for the Left, as Sabarimala was time and again invoked during campaigning here.
In Vattiyoorkavu, where Mayor V K Prasanth won by a margin of 14,465 votes, the Left increased its vote share by around 15 per cent from the 2016 Lok Sabha poll. Prasanth clocked 44 per cent of the votes, compared to the third position previously, when the the Left managed to garner only 40,441 votes (29.67 per cent).
In Konni, the CPM was successful in increasing its vote share by 2 per cent. Compared to last time when it got 36.45 per cent votes, the winning CPM candidate, K U Jenish Kumar, polled 38.96 per cent (54,099).
The erosion of UDF votes — from 50.98 per cent for Adoor Prakash in 2016 to 31.79 per cent for P Mohanraj — helped both the NDA and LDF.
Losing Aroor, where the CPM’s A M Ariff had won for three terms, will, however, require some soul-searching by the Left. Though Manu Pulickal lost by a slender margin, the huge dip in votes — 84,720 votes for Ariff in 2016 to 67,277 votes for Manu — would definitely need some analysis.
At least a few senior leaders now feel that a better push for the party-backed Independent candidate Manu Roy would have led to a different result in Ernakulam.
Though expected, the far-away third slot in Manjeshwar — where an anti-saffron sentiment came in handy for the IUML — too requires an introspection, as the Left candidate Shankar Rai’s Sabarimala remarks had hogged headlines there too.