Byelections are always uneventful so long as they do not pose any threat to the ruling dispensation. They appear and vanish like fever, raising political temperature for a while. But this time, byelections in Kerala offered a different narrative. They came in the wake of the Lok Sabha elections in which the Left Front was nearly washed out, just winning one out of 20 seats. Obviously, the Left’s fall was the UDF’s gain. The NDA also bettered its previous record in terms of vote share.
It is also significant to note that this time around, the leadership of the NSS and that of the Orthodox Church threw their lot openly with the UDF and the NDA, respectively. Interestingly, this was not confined to a mere declaration of sympathy but meant involvement in the election campaign itself. However, the election result belied the expectations of the UDF, NDA and communal leadership. While the UDF lost three seats to the LDF, it succeeded in snatching just one seat from the latter. The NDA also suffered reverses as its votes dipped heavily. The byelection thus made two things explicit: nothing is true of caste/religious leaderships except their (political) self exaggerations; the LDF is back in the political reckoning.
The byelection has shown that the ultimate defenders of democracy are the people and that politics is not always about identity. People have also ripped open the political possibilities inherent in the coming elections to the local bodies and Assembly, which until now were thought to be loaded in favour of the UDF. The fact that even with the tacit support of communal forces the UDF lost three seats makes it clear that the elections aren’t going to be a repeat performance of the Lok Sabha verdict.
Thus all the players - LDF, UDF, NDA - have their tasks cut out for them. For the Left, the task is to perform without scandals and controversies. If so, another term is on the cards. For the UDF, the primary task is to keep its house in order. Further, rather than wooing communal leadership, it should woo people by speaking sensible politics. For the NDA, to emerge as a credible alternative, it has to shun its divisive agenda and speak about a present full of future, rather than speak of a past which is presentless and futureless. Whatever role the three fronts may play, the ultimate question people will ask at the hustings is ‘whose victory is better for our future’?
Dr J Prabhash
(The author is a political analyst and former head of the department of political science, University of Kerala)