KOZHIKODE: Widely perceived as a constituency mostly favouring UDF in successive Lok Sabha elections, Kozhikode is perhaps the only Parliamentary constituency where the candidature of a sitting MP was so certain even before the poll winds started blowing. Two-time MP M K Raghavan is also perhaps the only probable candidate who is currently on a formal campaign yatra in his constituency - on the lines of various party chiefs - even before the candidate list has been finalised.
But electoral politics is full of uncertainty. With five of the seven Assembly segments in the constituency now in its kitty, a resurgent CPM is all set to offer a tough fight this time around. The BJP is no pushover either.
The party polled over 1.15 lakh votes when senior leader C K Padmanabhan contested in 2014. However, the big task for both parties will be to find a candidate who can match Raghavan in popularity. An analysis of the previous elections would prove both UDF and LDF are neck and neck in most of the Assembly segments.
However, in Koduvally and Kozhikode (South) - known as strongholds of the Indian Union Muslim League - the picture is different. Here, Muslim voters have consistently thrown their weight behind the UDF candidate, enabling the front to finally walk away with the trophy at the hustings.
Taking the same factor into consideration, the CPM, analysts believe, would most probably field a Muslim candidate this time with a clear eye on minority votes. The move is aimed at compensating for the huge erosion of upper-caste Hindu votes due to the Sabarimala imbroglio.
Roll of honour
2009 - By a margin of 838 votes, M K Raghavan of the Congress defeats CPM candidate Adv P A Muhammed Riyaz.
2004 - JD(S) candidate M P Veerendra Kumar defeats
Adv V Balaram of the INC by a margin of 65,326 votes.
1999- INC’s K Muraleedharan beats JD (S) candidate C M Ibrahim by 50,402 votes.
1998-INC candidate Adv P Sankaran wins against M P Veerendra Kumar (JD) by 18,675 votes.
1996- Janata Dal’s M P Veerendra Kumar defeats
INC’s K Muraleedharan by 38,703 votes.
1991- For the second consecutive term, INC’s K Muraleedharan wins the seat by a margin of 15,884 votes after defeating Janata Dal candidate M P Veerendra Kumar.
Decisive factors
Being mostly an urban constituency, development plays a crucial role here than political issues. The UDF has been successful in showcasing various development projects implemented over the past decade before the electorate. The focus of the LDF would be to paint these achievements as mere eyewash. The ‘accessibility’ of the sitting MP is another trump card the UDF will play to the hilt. If Sabarimala continues to remain an issue till the day of polling, the UDF would stand to gain equally as the BJP in Kozhikode, analysts say.