THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The UDF, which had scripted incredible success in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year but suffered a shock defeat in the Pala bypoll last month, is feeling the heat as it faces byelections in five assembly constituencies on Monday. The UDF is defending four seats — Vattiyoorkavu, Konni, Ernakulam and Manjeshwar — and looking to wrest Aroor from the Left.
The LDF expects to retain Aroor and try to win Konni and Vattiyoorkavu as well riding on the corruption issues, especially the Palarivattom flyover graft, though UDF could counter it with the mark-donation allegation against Higher Education Minister K T Jaleel, which surfaced last week. At the same time, the poor condition of roads in the state can impact the chances of both fronts.
A fierce fight is expected at Vattiyoorkavu, Konni and Aroor, but UDF has reasons to be upbeat following the support extended by the Nair Service Society (NSS). The society announced openly that it would take “Right Distance”, which is termed pro-Congress. The UDF can also count on the support of Christian denominations --- Orthodox, Malankara Catholic, CSI and Latin Catholic.
In Konni, the UDF is expecting the consolidation of Nair and Orthodox votes in its favour. While the Orthodox Church has been traditional supporters of the Congress and UDF, the presence of P Mohanraj should win the front more votes from the Nair community as well.
The LDF believes the undercurrents in Congress will work in its favour. It keeps an eye on the friction within the Congress after Adoor Prakash’s close associate Robin Peter was overlooked for Mohanraj. Furthermore, K U Jenish Kumar is eying Ezhava votes.
In Aroor, the UDF is facing an uphill task with the SNDP Yogam likely to extend its support to LDF candidate Manu C Pulickal though the NDA too has fielded an Ezhava candidate in BJP leader K P Prakash Babu. Though the BDJS, the SNDP’s political arm, is with the NDA, it cannot bank fully on Ezhava community’s votes with the Left sure to win many of them. It may be recalled that UDF’s Alappuzha candidate Shanimol Usman had led the Aroor assembly segment by 648 votes in the last Parliament elections.
UDF’s T J Vinodh does not face much of a threat in Ernakulam constituency as young Congress leader Hibi Eden had won there by 21,949 in the 2016 elections and LDF and NDA do not have much say in the constituency.
In Manjeshwar, the fight is between the UDF and NDA. In the last assembly elections, BJP leader K Surendran had lost to the IUML’s P B Adbul Razak by a meagre 89 votes. NDA’s Ravisha Tantri Kuntar is eager to pull it off this time.