KOCHI: The number of active Covid-19 cases seems to have peaked in Kerala. Going by the latest data, the number peaked at 266 cases on April 6 (Monday) when 10 active cases were reported that day. After Monday, the number of active cases has been showing a steady decline to touch 258, a decline of eight cases, on Thursday. The number fell by three on Tuesday, dropped another four on Wednesday and dipped again by one on Thursday. Dr Jijo P Ulahannan of Government College, Kasaragod, said the recovery of Covid patients is pulling down the number of active cases in the state. Data validates this. The state has seen 97 patients recovering from the deadly virus till now -- 13 on Thursday alone.
Maharashtra, where the number of Covid-19 cases tops at 1,324, has reported the most number of recoveries at 117. But Maharashtra also has the most number of deaths at 74 compared to just two in Kerala.Dr Tinku Joseph, pulmonologist at Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, said though Kerala has been doing much better than other states, more patients need to be screened before arriving at a conclusion that the active cases have peaked. “We have also not entered into phase 3 yet,” he said.
The phase 3, which is the community spread stage, could occur if the lockdown is relaxed, said experts. When a 68-year-old man with no travel history or reported contact died on March 31 -- the second Covid-19 death in Kerala -- there were concerns of community spread of the novel coronavirus in the state. But Health Minister K K Shailaja had ruled out any such fears saying the man was already suffering from several other health issues including high blood pressure.
“To avoid phase 3, the lockdown has to be continued and a majority of suspected population has to be screened,” said Dr Tinku Joseph.Added Dr Ulahannan: “Opening the borders and mixing of people or even testing of more people can trigger a spike in the active Covid cases.” He said since the disease came from abroad and Kerala has isolated people, there is a lesser chance that the mixing of people may lead to more positive cases.
Flattening the curve
After Monday, the number of active cases has been showing a steady drop to touch 258 -- a decline of eight cases -- on Thursday. The number fell by three on Tuesday, dropped another four on Wednesday and dipped again by one on Thursday.