THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It was on January 30 that Kerala reported its first coronavirus case, a medical student who returned from Chinese city of Wuhan being the first patient. As the state’s fight against Covid-19 enters fifth month, bigger challenges including the threat of community transmission await Kerala, especially since the inflow of returnees is set to continue. With monsoon to set in, the Health Department is sure to come under added pressure.
The month of May was strenuous for Kerala as 771 positive cases and seven deaths were reported. Sixteen healthcare workers, three policemen, four prisoners and nine airline crew members contracted the virus during the month. The total confirmed cases rose to 1,269. “The fact is that nobody knows what happens next. There are some projections, but they can’t be revealed as they’re based on mere assumptions. The state is well equipped to deal with any situation though,” said an officer of the state rapid response cell for Covid-19.
The second wave began and cases spiked after NRKs who came back from abroad and other states started testing positive, but the officer said Kerala should not make a big issue out of the returnees’ infection as the current facilities are more than enough to give them quality care. But, the officer added, it is a matter of concern when those in room quarantine violate the norms and mingle first with members in their families and then others in the society, leaving clusters of cases.
Dr A Sukumaran, who served as state epidemiologist, said: “Cases will continue to spike. Since people are now more aware and authorities concerned are intervening, incidents of local transmission might drop. But community transmission may happen though not become a threat.” Dr Anish T S of Community Medicine Department, Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, said community transmission may happen anytime soon considering that there is a spurt in cases.
“As per predictions, cases will peak, but a real surge will happen in September/October. Lockdown is not the solution to check the virus spread. But then, we can’t afford to get back to our normal societal behaviour. The key will be to follow a middle path,” said Anish. Kerala Government Medical Officers’ Association general secretary Dr G S Vijayakrishnan said that with the Centre announcing the ‘unlock’ plan, extra vigil is needed to plug gaps that trigger events and in turn put pressure on the health system.
‘Monsoon-related diseases will also pose challenges’
“People should become more responsible and accountable. Those in quarantine should strictly follow the guidelines. The publ i c should wear facemasks, follow hand/ respiratory hygiene and social distancing. Reverse quarantine (the practice of detaching the most vulnerable people from the general public) should be implemented at full throttle, ” said Vijayakrishnan. The onset of monsoon will put more pressure on the Health Department which is busy dealing with the second wave of Covid cases at the moment. Once there is an outbreak of monsoonrelated diseases like dengue and leptospirosis, it will further stretch the system.
There is also a threat of respiratory diseases like H1N1. “The problem is that respiratory illnesses and vector-borne diseases have some similarities with Covid-19. This will pose clinical challenges as the physician might have a hard time to distinguish the diseases. Everyone will have to be tested. That brings the question of who will bear the cost. The Health Department might come up with necessary interventions to address these issues,” said E Sreekumar, chief scientific officer at the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology. The Health Department is confident as it believes it can flatten the curve, having done it once. But the state needs to punch way above its weight.