THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The state government ignoring its own expert committee’s opinion on conducting surveys to identify the actual number of people having immunity against Covid has come in the way of charting out better strategies for containing the pandemic and also to lift lockdown curbs.
The need for such surveys has become more important now as the state continues to witness a sharp rise in the number of daily positive cases and active patients even after the government imposed restrictions based on the test positivity rate recorded at the local body level.
While the lockdown strategy during the peak of the second wave appeared effective in reducing a major surge, the health experts including those in the government-appointed Covid management team are baffled by the lack of direction in managing the situation since then. They complained of lack of scientific methods in the containment strategies as the government relies heavily on lockdown and administrative measures to contain the spread. The state reported over 20,000 new positive cases daily in the last four days. It reported a TPR of 13.61% on Friday, the highest in the last six days.
One major suggestion of health experts was to conduct seroprevalence surveys in all districts. They pointed out that such surveys would help policymakers understand the nature of the disease better and make plans accordingly. “It was our demand to follow up pandemic strategy based on sero surveillance. But suggestions were largely ignored by bureaucrats,” said a Covid management panel member.
The sero survey conducted by ICMR found that 42.7% of people in the state have immunity and a large number of the population are still susceptible. The survey is based on the samples collected from just 1,308 people in three districts -- Ernakulam, Palakkad and Thrissur. It tested 1,203 samples in a smaller state like Assam and only 1,229 samples in a big state like Madhya Pradesh. The apex body for medical research has now advised states to conduct sero surveys at the local level to assess the situation.
“There is a need to have an alternative strategy as the current method to contain spread using TPR has failed. A sero survey would help in understanding the real situation and make alternative plans,” said immunologist and public health expert Dr Padmanabha Shenoy. The sero survey has to be different from the initial days of the pandemic as over 37% of the population have received at least one dose of vaccination. The immunity against the disease can be developed either by recovering from the infection or taking the vaccine.
Internal medicine specialist and public health activist Dr N M Arun said the data generated by the government are not shared with the scientific community. “We need a lot of data to understand the disease and its impact. In countries like the United Kingdom, such information is generated and shared every week. But here, it is still in the hands of a few,” he said.