KOCHI: Crushing all hopes of a respite from the pandemic, the recent surge in Covid-19 infections reported from different parts of the country has set alarm bells ringing in Kerala.The proven threat of reinfection and confirmation regarding the existence of double mutant virus variants have compounded the dread of the disease. The second wave of infections having already begun in several parts of the country, experts advise constant vigil to keep the pandemic in check in Kerala. With this clear and present danger looming large, the forthcoming elections and the rampant Covid protocol violations during the campaign can be the Achilles’ Heel in the efforts of the state to control the spread of the pandemic, say experts.
Kerala saw a peak in Covid-19 cases only in October last year, while the rest of the states had already gone through the worst and were recovering from the impact. “After the peak, cases had come down in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Punjab, when Kerala witnessed its peak. Therefore, it is difficult to predict when the cases might go up in the state. Definitely, with elections around the corner and the campaigning going on in full swing, maybe in another two months, Kerala can expect a second wave,” said Dr Anup R Warrier, Infectious Disease expert.
Two mutated variants — E484Q and L452R — were detected last week. So far, six variants have been detected in the country— two of them have been reported in Kerala too. “Pacing up the vaccination drive in the state is the only way to contain the spread of the virus. However, even in that case, patients who recovered from Covid in May-June last year are now at risk of reinfection. Immunity developed in the body after Covid is expected to last only for 3-6 months,” said Dr Gopi Kumar P, ENT specialist.
Meanwhile, along with the state gearing up to vaccinate as many as possible, genome sequencing for identifying possible variants is also in progress. “Hospital beds in several cities, including Pune and Delhi, are getting filled up. Mutant variants are among the many reasons cited for the surge in cases and learning from the earlier pandemics like Spanish flu that the world has experienced, it can be said that the second wave could be worse than the first,” said Dr Anup.
Meanwhile, the test positivity rate in Kerala, which stood at 3.8 per cent on Monday rose to 5.37 on Wednesday, indicating that the situation could worsen soon. “We are constantly monitoring the Covid-19 situation in the state, expecting a rise. Our priority now is to vaccinate the vulnerable. The new variants found will not be just limited to the state. Chances of spread of the virus from and to other states, and even countries, are high, with all the economic activity resuming. In the case of the mutated viruses, so far, research and studies reveal that they are expected to be more contagious,” said a health official.
7 days’ average
TPR of states
Maharashtra 23 %
Chhattisgarh 9.2 %
Punjab 8.8%
Madhya Pradesh 8.4%
Rajasthan 5.2%
Kerala 4.1 %