THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Some surprise results. Defeat of a few big guns. Emergence of saffron party as a force to reckon with. The polls this time could present us with a whole new scenario.Left could suffer setbacks in south and central Kerala. In Kundara, Fisheries Minister Mercykutty Amma is sweating against P C Vishnunadh, as the deep-sea fishing row has created mistrust among a section of voters. In Kollam, many Left supporters are not confident about actor Mukesh’s chances.
“Novelty factor works in favour of an actor when he/she is fielded for the first time, but the second time is all about performance. Bindu Krishna is giving Mukesh a tough fight,” a source said.UDF’s K M Shaji and Anil Akkara are under pressure in sitting seats Azhikode and Wadakkanchery, respectively.
Left struggling to retain Alappuzha
While the corruption allegations are working against Shaji’s favour, the candidature of Xavier Chittilappilly coupled with resentment over the LIFE Mission issue could turn the tide against Akkara.
In Kannur, young leader Satheesan Pacheni might upset Congress (S) veteran Ramachandran Kadannappally while in Pattambi, Riyaz Mukkoli, who enjoys a huge IUML support, could wrest the seat from CPI’s Mohammed Mohsin. The Left is struggling to retain Alappuzha and Ranni, while in Vadakara, Manayath Chandran faces stiff fight from RMPI’s K K Rema.
In Kalamassery, the general trend is in favour of P Rajeev, but strong undercurrents may favour UDF. In Tripunithura, UDF’s K Babu will get a good number of BJP votes while Dheevara votes from the Left could go to BJP’s K S Radhakrishnan.
There are indications that the saffron party may spring a surprise in Palakkad, Malampuzha and Kazhakoottam, apart from Nemom. E Sreedharan factor is paying BJP rich dividends in Palakkad district. In Vattiyoorkavu, Congress could be pushed to third place while in Nemom the fight is between BJP and CPM.
Last time the BJP had won Nemom and finished second in Manjeshwar, Kasaragod, Kazhakoottam, Malampuzha, Palakkad and Vattiyoorkavu. This time, the party may win or finish second in more seats including Thrissur, Kodungallur and even Thiruvananthapuram central. The NDA in all likelihood will increase its vote share of 15.1% that it had polled in the 2016 assembly polls. The front which got 15.1% of the vote share in 2016 assembly elections was able to increase it to 15.20% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
This further went up to 15.56% in the last local body polls. In most places where BJP finished second, it was either the UDF or the LDF that had fielded weak candidates, observed political commentator N M Pearson.