KOCHI: With barely hours remaining before the state heads to the polls and voters seemingly having made up their minds on whom to vote for, the poll battle in some of the key segments in the district is heading to an unpredictable climax. Unlike in the previous elections, where the main contest was between the UDF and LDF, the strong presence of NDA and Twenty20 in some of the constituencies has made the contest more intense this time around.
For UDF, the chances of coming to power, if it were to do so, largely hinge on the combine’s showing in the district. Hence, Ernakulam is crucial to the chief Opposition’s prospects of wresting power, since an impressive showing in the district will mean that the battle is half won. The district, which is widely regarded as a traditional stronghold of the UDF – the Congress-led main Opposition alliance had won nine out of the 14 seats in the district in the 2016 assembly polls, despite a pro-LDF wave.
However, this year, the UDF is facing a stiff challenge from LDF in some of its traditional strongholds like Kalamassery. In another seat, Kunnathunad, Twenty 20 is posing a major threat to UDF’s sitting MLA, V P Sajeendran. “Considering the history of the district, which is a UDF citadel, we dare forecast a landslide victory for the front. The Congress-led alliance is expected to further increase its tally this year if it can overcome some unexpected challenges,” said P Sujathan, a political observer.
The toughest battles, according to the political experts, are being witnessed in Tripunithura, Kalamassery, Kunnathunad, Muvattupuzha and Kochi. Of these, three are sitting LDF seats. “In Kunnathunad and Muvattupuzha constituencies, it is the presence of Twenty20, which is making it tough for the UDF and LDF. In our assessment, if Twenty20 were to garner more votes, it will be eating into the votes of both the fronts. Hence, we cannot say that Twenty 20’s advantage will affect the UDF’s prospects alone,” added Sujathan.
Meanwhile, D Dhanuraj, chairman of city-based Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR) think tank, said ‘whether to give a second term to the LDF government ‘ is a major talking point among voters. While the LDF supporters are confident of the Pinarayi government winning a historic second back-to-back term, a section of neutral voters want the UDF to be given a chance. “In some constituencies like Tripunithura, the BJP has considerable acceptance among the electorate. In such segments, it will be interesting to see from where the votes that fall into the BJP kitty come -- whether they are from the LDF or UDF,” he said.
In constituencies like Vypeen and Kochi, which have a sizeable coastal population, the deep-sea trawling issue will have an impact. In the Kochi assembly segment, which is the sitting seat of CPM’s K J Maxi, the presence of Twenty 20 and V4 Kochi, is causing concern to both the LDF and UDF. The UDF has fielded former mayor Tony Chammany to win back Kochi.Meanwhile, the LDF is confident of retaining all the sitting seats, including Kothamangalam, Muvattupuzha, Tripunithura, Kochi and Vypeen. The front is banking on its welfare measures.