KOCHI: On Sunday, Neyyattinkara diocese of the Latin Catholic Church issued a pastoral letter advising believers about the need to exercise their franchise in a way that expresses their anger against the government which “repeatedly lied to people in the deep-sea fishing controversy” and which “took away the reservation rights of a section of believers.”
The letter written by the Changanassery archbishop to believers on Saturday advised them to refrain from supporting power centres that might turn to autocracies. It was last Wednesday that NSS general secretary G Sukumaran Nair also hinted at the need to support parties that would support “rights of believers.”
All such statements that indirectly exhort a clear political line were issued just days ahead of the date of polling. This has always been the practice. Those who want to influence the confused voter will choose a time close to election day as a considerable section of voters decide on voting only in the last days. In fact, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, while warning about a possible ‘bomb explosion’ ahead of the polling day was taking a defensive step in advance.
National Election Study (NES) by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) had found that at least 10% of voters in Kerala take a decision on whom to vote in the last week of campaigning. Half of them push the decision to last minute, that is, their final call comes in the final 48 hours.
“In some of the recent elections, we found that around 12% pushed their decisions to the last two to three days,” said political scientist K M Sajad Ibrahim who leads NES in Kerala.The Analysis of Kerala Assembly Elections-2016 by Kochi-based Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR) found that 6% of voters took their decision at the last minute, probably within 48 hours of voting. The figure assumes significance when projected against the difference of vote share between LDF and UDF in that election. It was only 4.6%. In 2011, the difference between UDF and LDF was 0.9%. That means, the last-minute voter holds more weight in the battle for Kerala.
The CPPR study also found that 82% voters in Kerala take a decision on voting on his/her own. At least 77% regularly watched television or read newspaper to get updated about political developments during the campaign, found the study. Researchers divide last-minute voters into two groups – the first are those who want to go with the winner. and second has the confused voter. Pro-winner voters will assess the trends and decide to vote for those who they think is going to win. “Factors like opinion polls will become crucial here. Announcement of sops by the government also influences such voters. That is why we opposed last-minute gimmicks like rice distribution,” a senior UDF leader said.
The confused voter, on the other hand, is more likely to be influenced by messages delivered by influencers at the last minute. The real confusion in his/her mind would be about who to chose. This happens when candidates are equally good or bad. In such a case, a message from a trusted source like a religious leader hinting at one of the candidates will clear his/her mind.