THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As the Left front began its stock taking after the assembly elections, the CPM feels that the contest could possibly have a close finish. Even as the district committees have begun their respective assessment, the party is of the view that it would be able to win around 80-85 seats.
The party is confident of winning back Nemom, BJP’s lone sitting seat. Top sources in the party expressed confidence that the BJP’s vote share will take a dip, even as it feels that the party may lose a number of sitting seats. The BJP’s assured votes have not all been cast for some reason. The simmering resentment between the BJP and BJDS too could contribute in a few pockets.
“Several sitting seats witnessed a tough fight, as quite a few ‘sure’ seats turned overnight into fighting seats. There will be a number of sitting seats that we may lose, with tight fight at Alappuzha, Ambalappuzha, Thrissur, Kozhikode North and Ranni. LDF would have lost in Kuttiyadi had the candidate not been changed at the last minute. It’s not going to be a sweep, but a close fight,” said a top leader.
Going by the assessment of district unit leaders, south Kerala will stand with the Left. In Thiruvananthapuram district where the LDF has now 10 seats, the front faced a tough fight in many places. Vattiyoorkavu, Kattakada, Varkala, Chirayinkeezhu, Neyyattinkara, Kazhakoottam and Attingal are seen as sure seats while the party is confident of getting Nemom and Vamanapuram. In Parassala and Nedumangad, the party feels that the UDF could score upset victories.
The party Kollam unit observed that this time too, the entire district will stand with the Left. The CPM assessed that Kundara, Kottarakkara, Pathanapuram, Kunnathoor and Chathannoor will be sure wins.
Contrary to earlier assessments, the party now feels that J Mercykutty Amma will have a comfortable win here with a lead of more than 5,000 votes. “The surveys and a general impression that P C Vishnunath may win have led to the party improving its performance. She will lose only if the CPI votes are not polled,” a source said.
In Kottarakkara, K N Balagopal may get a lead of around 16,000 votes with around 6,000-8,000 votes coming from Kareepra panchayat. K B Ganesh Kumar of KC(B) may win with a lead of 21,000 votes. In Chathannoor, CPI’s G S Jayalal could get a lead of more than 20,000 votes.
The party is, however, not very comfortable with the assessment of Kollam and Karunagappally constituencies. In Kollam, the party observes that the lead could be just around 1,900 votes while in Karunagappally, the margin will be just 500-odd votes. In Chavara, the party feels that Sujith Vijayan could get a lead of 2,000 votes while in Eravipuram, it could be 18,000 votes. In Alappuzha, things may not be very rosy. Though it’s going to be a tight fight, P P Chitharanjan will win by at least 5,000 votes.