THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The sudden spike in Covid cases as opposed to a gradual increase expected after election points towards the presence of mutant variants, health experts have said.
They also said daily Covid cases may rise to 20,000 by May if strong containment measures are not put in place.
“There can be two reasons for the current spread – lowering of guard during elections and presence of mutants. I fear it is not just the elections as other states where no polls were held also faced a surge in cases. Until we get results of genomic studies, we should plan containment strategies with the assumption that mutants have a role in the spread,” said Dr K P Aravindan, pathologist and member of the expert panel on Covid-19.
While there were reports that mutant variants caused sudden spike in cases in Maharashtra, Punjab and Delhi, there is no data to prove its nature in Kerala. The state recently sent fresh samples for genomics study to the CSIR-Institute of Genomics and Interactive Biology, which is part of the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG). The results are expected in two weeks.
Health experts are unhappy with the opaque nature of genomics studies carried out by the state. Indian ‘double-mutant’ strain named B.1.617 that could lower the efficacy of vaccines was first detected in December. It was even found in 123 samples sent from 11 districts in the state.
It was different from the UK (B.1.1.7), South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (P.1) lineages. Though there was monitoring of overseas travellers, no such measure was put in place to trace the Indian mutant, said chairman of CAPSULE (Campaign Against Pseudo Science Using Law and Ethics), Dr U Nandakumar Nair.
“We lack a system that keeps a track of mutants every week. After identifying the variant, we need studies on its ability to transmit,” he said.
Dr Padmanabha Shenoy, an immunologist and a public health expert, said the presence of mutation is a serious problem that could affect our vaccine strategy.
“There should be studies on the genetics and epidemiology of the mutants to chalk out a containment strategy. Our efforts in vaccination will go to waste if the doses are found to be ineffective against the mutants,” said Dr Shenoy.
However, he said present vaccines had helped in preventing serious complications and deaths among the vaccinated population.
Dr Aravindan said the vaccination strategy can be changed to vaccinate more people in the fastest possible time to achieve the desired herd immunity against mutant variants.