KOCHI: Even as the state’s political scene has picked up steam with exit polls ahead of the counting day on May 2, a young data scientist and IT professional from Kochi has come out with a big data analysis report predicting 75 to 80 seats for UDF, 50 to 55 seats for LDF and three to five seats for NDA.The report, based on the data collated and analysed from over 200 official and unofficial Facebook pages, 2,000 responses and comments to different videos and 50 WhatsApp groups, has also predicted a seat to an independent in Poonjar.
“It took over 10 days to prepare the report after analysing the data using tools like Tableau, OpenRefine, KNIME etc. We started to mine the data from identified FB, WhatsApp and Telegram groups right from the day of polling on April 6 to April 16. We monitored the responses from people belonging to different constituencies and collated it to analyse them using specific tools,” said 29-year-old Nidhin Chandradas.
“Big data analytics tools are heavily used by companies to analyse people’s responses and predict their preferences. We have been preparing such reports for various brands, and they usually turn out to be 90% accurate. So, we decided to run such an analysis to prepare a report on assembly elections,” he said, adding that they also collated enormous data on social listening and audience insights apart from using AI-powered trend detection tools to prepare the report. He said Facebook page data analysis was done to get key page metrics for engagement, audience details, post reach and impressions.
“The accuracy factor of big data analysis report prepared from data collated from social media is higher than any traditionally conducted exit poll. Voter sentiment can be identified from posts and comments. However, the accuracy depends on the volume of data collected and the different parameters used to analyse it,” said data security expert Manu Zacharia.
The report has predicted three to five seats for BJP-led NDA and the five probable seats are Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Kazhakoottam, Manjeswaram and Palakkad. Of these five seats, the saffron party is betting big on four — Kazhakoottam, Nemom, Manjeswaram and Palakkad where the party’s heavy weight candidates Sobha Surendran, Kummanam Rajasekharan, K Surendran and Metroman E Sreedharan are contesting.
‘3-5 probable seats for NDA’
The report has predicted three to five seats for BJP-led NDA. The five probable seats are Thiruvanantha- puram, Nemom, Kazhakoottam, Manjeswaram and Palakkad.
Setback to Jose’s KC(M)?
The report does not paint a rosy picture for Jose K Mani’s KC(M) in the LDF camp. It predicts UDF win in 11 seats & independent P C George’s win in one seat where KC(M) picks are fielded.