THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Residents can heave a sigh of relief as a pleasant August is forecast by weather agencies in Kerala this year after three successive stormy Augusts since 2018. But this would be another challenge for the state government as people are expected to hit the streets in large numbers ahead of Onam, especially if there is normal rainfall.
Traditionally, the state has witnessed heavy rainfall in July with an average of 72 cm, followed by June (64 cm), August (43 cm) and September (26 cm). August 2018 witnessed record rainfall of 82 cm which created mega floods in the history of the state. As if this was not enough, August 2019 also witnessed another record rainfall of 95 cm, creating two back to back floods in Kerala. August 2020 was also not different, with the state receiving 57.5 cm rain against the average of 43 cm, but the damage was limited to Idukki.
The extended forecast issued by the Indian Met Department predicts only below normal rainfall in Kerala in the first half of August and the long-range forecast issued by the IMD for August spells only normal rainfall in the southern Peninsular India. However, northern Kerala is expected to get some isolated heavy rainfall in the second half of the month. Overall, this August is expected to witness the arrival of pleasant Chingam, the first month of the Malayalam calendar, which brings in Onam, the 10-day festival, beginning with the Atham and concluding on the 10th day with Thiruvonam.
K Santhosh, director, IMD Meteorological Centre, Thiruvananthapuram, said, "The global factors which influence the southwest monsoon are not much conducive for heavy downpours like the state witnessed in the past three years. The current weather is influenced by a system of oscillating sea surface temperatures known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which prevails negative over the Indian Ocean and it is likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season."
Since the weather has almost set a perfect ambience for the harvest festival of Keralites, now the state government will have to ensure that things do not go out of control during the Onam weeks as the test positivity rate still remains high in the state despite its efforts to tame the rising Covid cases.
Average monthly rainfall
June - 64 cm
July - 72 cm
August - 43 cm
September - 26 cm
Past three Augusts
2018 - 82 cm
2019 - 95 cm
2020 - 57 cm