THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: For Kerala, winter is a time one expects cool mornings, hot cups of tea and a benevolent sun. But the biggest question is how soon will winter set in over the state which usually witnesses a change in climate by the second week of November when the northeast monsoon weakens.
According to experts, the extended rain over the state has delayed the arrival of the cool northeasterly winds and as per the current analysis, the state is expected to greet misty mornings by December 10, provided there are no other major weather system formations over the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea.
The India Meteorological Department, in its latest bulletin, said the maximum day temperature this time is likely to fall considerably during December, January and February and the minimum temperature is likely to be the same as in the previous years.
M G Manoj, a research scientist with Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cochin University of Science and Technology, told The New Indian Express, "The westerly wind from the Arabian Sea has been preventing the flow of northeasterly wind into the state. In addition, the back-to-back low pressure formations over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal have delayed the onset of winter. Since October, 11 low pressure systems had formed against the average of five-six low pressure systems during this period. It is expected that with the landfall of Cyclone Jawad by Saturday, there would not be any major weather system. If so, the state can greet chilly mornings by December 10," he said.
The drop in the maximum day temperature in the state forecast also points to the chilly mornings, he added.
P S Biju, IMD joint director, Thiruvananthapuram, said, "We cannot rule out the possibility of formation of another weather system over the Bay of Bengal. However, Cyclone Jawad is expected to not cause any harm in the state as it is likely to take a recurve before making landfall. The state is likely to not experience any extreme or very heavy rainfall event this time as in the past. But there will be instances like a cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal in late December."
"A depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on December 25, 2011 had intensified into a cyclonic storm and reached north Kerala after crossing between Cuddalore and Puducherry. By the time it reached north Kerala by December 31, it had weakened into well-marked low pressure. But due to its effect, south Kerala had witnessed heavy rainfall, with Haripad recording the extreme rainfall of 22cm. So, the weather systems over the Bay of Bengal will have a direct bearing on the climate of the state. At present, there is no chance for a major weather system over the Arabian Sea in the coming weeks and if there are no major systems over the Bay of Bengal after the present cyclone, the winter will not be delayed further," he added.