THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The sweeping win and the huge majority fetched in a good number of seats by the LDF is a clear indicator that it had won votes from all sections of the electorate. Cutting across class, caste, age and education barriers, voters preferred LDF though the reasons of each section might have been different.
“The LDF could mobilise some sections from every sector. This cross-sectional mobilisation helped them translate the verdict into a sweep. It is a people’s verdict in favour of LDF,” said political scientist J Prabhash. Voters have reasons beyond ideology that help decide whom to vote for, he said.
Such an emergence of electorate in favour of a particular front had happened in the state earlier too. In 1977, the united front led by Congress, CPI and Muslim League returned to power by winning 111 out of 140 seats. In 2001, A K Antony-led UDF emerged winner by bagging 99 seats and in 2006, V S Achuthanandan-led LDF won by bagging 98 seats.
Academic and political observer Fakruddin Ali said the lingering crisis caused by Covid-19 was among the reasons that led to the big win of LDF. “Generally, people were satisfied with the way the Pinarayi Vijayan government had handled crises. With the state still going through a crisis face, electors didn’t want to experiment with another dispensation. The absence of a strong leadership in the UDF added to this factor,” Ali told TNIE. He said welfare initiatives like grocery kits and social security pension had also played key roles. “Still, I feel that the upper class voters among the upper caste electorate hadn’t voted for the LDF. But, middle and lower middle classes of upper caste seem to have preferred LDF,” he said.
A detailed analysis of exit poll results conducted by national agencies showed that absence of anti-incumbency was the major reason behind their prediction of LDF’s big win. Exit poll by Chanakya found that 63% of voters were satisfied and didn’t want a change in governance against 28% who preferred a change of guard. The poll also noted that all major communities favoured LDF in the poll. LDF has the support of 43% of Nairs and 57% of Ezhavas.
Among Christians, 44% supported LDF against 45% who supported UDF, which also won 53% of Muslim votes. LDF would fetch 36% of Muslim votes and 68% of SC/ST votes, predicted the survey. The agency had predicted an LDF sweep winning 93 to 111 seats.
In the survey conducted by VMR for Manorama News, it was observed that respondents of all educational background — from school dropouts to post-graduates — preferred LDF and respondents from all age groups, except those above 65 years, preferred LDF. The exit poll conducted by C Voter found that vote share of BJP would shrink by 1.2% this year and hinted that BJP’s loss would be UDF’s gain. In reality, the vote share of BJP dipped by over 3%.