THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted that the monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 31, with a model error of plus or minus four days. Traditionally, June 1 is the normal date for the onset of Southwest Monsoon or Edavapathi in Kerala, which is the entry point for the monsoon into the Indian mainland.
The IMD in its April forecast had said the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The state used to get around 204.9cm of rainfall during the 120-day Southwest Monsoon.
Last year, the state had received 9 per cent above normal rainfall recording 222.79cm rainfall against the average of 204.92cm. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet also predicted that the onset of Southwest Monsoon in Kerala is likely to be on May 30 with a model error of +/- two days this year.
Though a cyclone is likely to form over Arabian Sea, the tropical storm is expected to vacate the Indian region by May 22 following which the westerly winds and cross equatorial flow will strengthen over Arabian Sea. It has also forecast that pre-monsoon showers will be intense and heavy in Kerala.