THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After a nearly week-long dry spell, the India Meteorological Department has forecast moderate rain across the state till August 25. It has issued a yellow alert, indicating isolated heavy rain, in Idukki from August 23 to 25. Ernakulam has been issued a yellow alert on August 23 and 24 while Kottayam is expected to get isolated heavy rain on August 24.
While the northern states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh experienced heavy rain and related calamities over the past few days, the situation had improved in Kerala since the second week of August. Experts predict the state will get moderate rain as the monsoon conditions have become favourable again.
“The weakening of high pressure, which was blocking the winds in the Arabian Sea, has led to the strengthening of the westerly wind. It is likely to bring a small change from the dry condition,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority.
The experts are also watching the development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that could enhance or suppress the monsoon, over the Arabian Sea. It is characterised by a group of clouds, the movement of which will affect the weather pattern and it typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.
“The MJO is expected to turn into phase 2 by August 24. Any strong northward propagation of the MJO will result in more rain in Kerala,” Rajeevan said.