KOCHI: Certain campaign strategies tailor-made for Thrikkakara constituency turn kaput. Many CPM leaders admit the party went into an overdrive in bypoll . Ruling front simply did not understand the pulse of the constituency
There was a meme going around in Kerala today as the result of Thrikkakara assembly byelection was coming out. “LDF may have fielded a cardiac specialist as the candidate; but it failed to sense the pulse of the voters,” it said. There is no better way to sum up the election outcome than this. The LDF, like never before, bungled this election from the very beginning. Right from the confusion regarding the choice of candidate, the manner in which Dr Jo Joseph was introduced and the faux pas made by its senior leaders on the actor assault case on the election eve to the unnecessary high-voltage campaign, everything backfired. Certain campaign strategies tailor-made for Thrikkakara, the most urban of all constituencies in the state, also turned kaput. In short, the ruling front simply did not understand the pulse of the constituency.
The LDF leadership must be regretting now for turning the byelection into a referendum on the state government while it has 99 of 140 seats in its kitty. The way the top CPM leadership, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, campaigned in Thrikkakara made it clear that the result had become an “ego issue” for the LDF. All Left sympathisers who had camped in the constituency for weeks missed the writing on the wall.
Many CPM leaders now admit that the party went into an overdrive in Thrikkakara. They now realise the folly in creating too many optics during the campaign, forgetting the fact that they are in a constituency which has elected only Congress candidates ever since its formation.
With hindsight, many also think that instead of trying to capture the safest seat for Congress using right-wing tactics, the party should have opted for a political fight. But then hindsight has no value in electoral politics. The UDF, on the other hand, showed unusual unity and coordination in its campaign. It knew very well that losing Thrikkakara or having even a lesser margin of victory would ring the party’s death knell in the state.
While they made full use of the sympathy factor in favour of Uma Thomas, the Congress’ real success lay in the fact that it could bring all anti-Left forces under a single umbrella. That it could also retain the trust of minority communities and upper class Hindus — traditional vote banks of the UDF which it had lost in 2021 assembly elections — should also be a huge relief to Congress. The Congress also put to good use the latent fear in the minds of the minority communities, especially Muslims, of BJP coming to the centrestage in Kerala politics in the eventuality of Congress getting decimated. The fact that the party still has strong possibilities in the state if it could act as a fulcrum for all anti-Left forces could be a lesson for the Congress. But to read too much into the victory in Thrikkakara, one of its strongest bastions, would also be wrong.
The biggest lesson, however, would be for the CPM-led LDF. It should realise that no amount of political micro-management or social engineering would change the minds of voters if there is no context to it.
The LDF should also realise that imitating UDF strategies for campaigning will do it no good. Voters, logical or not, have different expectations from both UDF and LDF.
LESSON FOR THE LDF
The biggest lesson, however, would be for the CPM-led LDF. It should realise that no amount of political micro-management or social engineering would change the minds of voters if there is no context to it. The LDF should also realise that imitating UDF strategies for campaigning will do it no good.