THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Amidst prolonged dry weather accentuating concerns of an impending drought condition the official weather forecast (by India Meteorological Department) says that the state is likely to get more rainfall in the coming months. The weather condition is set to improve in the first week of March itself as the first low pressure in Bay of Bengal this year is moving towards the state. It is expected to result in isolated rainfall in different parts of the state between March 5 and 7.
The IMD forecast is in sync with almost all weather models available in the world that suggest better than average rainfall in the state in March. What’s more, the forecast also says that the state will experience less than normal temperature in the summer months of March, April and May. The rainfall during the pre-monsoon period is crucial for drought management in the state.
“The state is expected to get better than average rainfall during the pre-monsoon period according to various weather models. The rainfall in March is lesser when compared to April and May. The temperature is also likely to be near normal or below normal. However, the night temperature is likely to rise in March,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, meteorologist of Kerala State Disaster Management Authority.
The predictions are a welcome relief as the state had a rainfall deficit (33%) in January and February. Though these winter months are known for lesser rainfall (22.4 mm), this year the state received even lesser (14.9 mm), fuelling concerns of a harsh summer. The northern districts were largely rain deficient as the rain measuring stations in districts such as Malappuram failed to record a single tick mark. Only Thiruvananthapuram recorded excess rainfall during the period (54 per cent).
The rainfall in the state was unusual on many counts last year. In 2021, the winter months experienced a record once in a century rainfall, followed by a better than average pre-monsoon rainfall. The South West monsoon that followed was deficient, but it prolonged. The state’s coast also experienced more low pressures last year, which resulted in record rainfall and flood situations in mid-October.
According to Rajeevan, the favourable weather conditions of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon which affects weather activities across the globe, resulted in record rainfall during the winter months last year.
