BENGALURU: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday announced that the South West Monsoon was expected to hit the Kerala coast on May 27, with a buffer of plus or minus four days. The onset of monsoon this year is four days ahead of the onset last year. In 2021, the South West Monsoon had set in on May 31.
The official release from IMD-Delhi on Friday said, “This year, the onset of South West Monsoon over Kerala is likely to be earlier than the normal date. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27, with a model error of plus or minus four days.” The head office has also shared the details of the present status of the SWM which is advancing over the Andaman Sea.
According to officials, “In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rain is being experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the normal dates of monsoon onset or progress, SWM advances over the Andaman Sea to around May 22.
In association with enhanced cross equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favorable for advance of SWM into south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and some parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal by around May 15, 2022.” The officials added that earlier data has shown that there is no association of the date of monsoon advancing over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.
The IMD announces the dates of the onset of SWM based on six predictor models. They include minimum temperatures over North West India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long-wave radiation over South China sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the East equatorial Indian Ocean, and outgoing long-wave radiation over the South West Pacific region. IMD- Bengaluru officials said they will closely monitor the movement of the winds and the systems to check if there is any delay or advancement.
season beginning
Year Actual Forecast
2017 May 30 May 30
2018 May 29 May 29
2019 June 8 June 6
2020 June 1 June 5
2021 June 3 May 31