THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Below normal in June, the southwest monsoon is expected to gain strength in July, in a situation similar to what was seen in the recent past. Similar to the pattern observed over the past three years, the rainfall in June this year was a little more than half of the normal, while July demonstrated normal or above-normal levels of precipitation.
Last year, a rainfall deficit of 52% in June was followed by normal rainfall in July. Weather experts anticipate a similar pattern this year. Favourable weather conditions have already started developing, indicating steady increase in rainfall in the coming days. These weather systems are projected to streamline the westerly winds responsible for bringing rainfall to the region.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that central India, south peninsular and east India and certain areas of Northeast and Northwest India, are most likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall in July.
Alerts have been issued across the state until July 6, with Idukki, Kannur, and Kasaragod districts placed under orange alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall on Monday. Additionally, nine districts have been issued orange alert for Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the IMD officially declared the arrival of the monsoon across the country on Sunday. Factors such as formation of a monsoon trough south of its usual position, an off-shore trough from the south Maharashtra coast to the Kerala coast, and cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are expected to influence the rainfall.
“The rain spell in the next few days will differ from what was observed in June. Westerly winds are projected to become more streamlined due to the influence of weather systems,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority. “An unusual cyclone (Biparjoy) disrupted the rainfall in June, and it took time to streamline the wind. If cloud formation matches the wind speed, we will get more rainfall,” he said.
Rajeevan also highlighted the favourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that can impact the monsoon. Weather experts are also expecting the development of more low-pressure areas that would enhance rainfall in the coming days.
