THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: This was the driest August in the recorded history of weather observation in Kerala. The state received just 59.6mm of rain last month, the lowest in 123 years, against the average normal of 445.2mm. The previous low was 181mm in August 1911. Even in 2016, when it experienced a drought situation, the state had received 231 mm in August.
In previous years, a deficit rain in June and July was compensated by above-normal rain in August and September. However, this year the situation worsened, with the overall rain deficit increasing from 35% in July to 48% in August. With the four-month southwest monsoon season reaching its final stage, Kerala has received just half the average normal rainfall.
“This is so far the worst year in terms of overall rainfall. The state received just 1,257.7 mm from January to August. It was 1,601mm during the same period in 2016,” said Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority.
The deficit rainfall is reflected in the water level in reservoirs in the state. The major reservoirs managed by the KSEB are operating at 34% capacity as of August 30.
The rainfall deficit during the first three months of monsoon is unlikely to be rectified in the last month of the season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its forecast outlook for September, predicted that normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northeast India, adjoining east India, foothills of the Himalayas and some areas of east-central and south peninsular India.
As per the report, the rain situation in Kerala is likely to be below normal in most of the parts and normal in the central districts along the coast.
However, weather experts have predicted that the activation of weather systems in both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea offers some hope for an active spell in September.
“There is a chance for widespread rain by September 4 and it is likely to intensify by September 8. There are a host of conditions favourable in the form of cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, cyclones in the Western Pacific, favourable positions of Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation, for a good rainfall,” said Rajeevan.