THIRUVANANTHAPURAM : n April 3, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi led a massive roadshow in Wayanad to file his nomination from the Lok Sabha seat. For many, it brought back memories of the roadshow that Rahul led in the run-up to 2019, an election that saw him romp home by over 4 lakh votes.
Yet, there was something different this time. Flags of the Indian Union Muslim League, a key UDF ally in Kerala and whose support ensured the decisive win for Rahul, were nowhere to be seen in the crowd. In fact, there were no flags, not even of the Congress.
It was immediately clear why. In 2019, the use of the IUML’s green flags in Rahul’s roadshow had been used by the BJP as political ammunition to corner the grand old party at the national level. This time around, the Congress was not willing to give that chance to the BJP.
However, the Congress’ plan to hoodwink BJP backfired. A vigilant Left took note of the missing flags and slammed the Congress over its absence. The grand old party, unsurprisingly, was accused of cowardice. The Congress tried to spin things and termed the decision to not use flags an internal UDF matter. League, though reportedly miffed, is abiding its time and for the moment, silence reigns.
However, the debate over the missing flags has highlighted a political aspect the state has been witnessing for long in every election - the battle to bag minority votes. Come elections, both UDF and LDF use everything in their arsenal to woo minorities. If loyalty-shifts among majority communities contribute to changing vote-shares, it’s the minorities who exercise the most decisive take. Historically, the Left and UDF have realised the potential of Muslim and Christian vote base in elections, hence the perennial attempts to secure those.
The Muslims and Christians, who constitute a considerable portion of the state’s population – 27% and 18%, respectively – play a decisive role in most elections. Minority votes keep shifting, depending on the existing political scenario at both the state and national levels, perceived threats, persuasions and new developments.
A significant political shift visible since 2019 is a (reverse?) polarisation to counter the Modi wave or what’s perceived as pro-BJP consolidation.
Going by the CSDS-Kerala NES Post Poll Survey by political scientist K M Sajad Ibrahim of the Kerala University, “An anti-Modi response was visible in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, when BJP lost 14% of its votes compared to the 2014 polls. Not surprisingly, LDF got 9% more Muslim votes in 2019, while UDF, which retained the strong support of Muslim minorities (with 63% votes in 2014) held its ground and added a 2% rise to its Muslim vote share.”
In an election where Sabarimala women entry issues created major ripples, it was not surprising for Muslim votes to shift en masse to non-BJP fronts. While BJP got just 2% of Muslim votes, the UDF and LDF scored 65% and 30%, respectively.
Noticeably, an almost similar trend was seen in Christian votes too, with the BJP losing 7% of its Christian vote share in 2019 from 2014. At the same time, UDF recorded a 5% rise in its Christian vote share, while LDF suffered a 2% dip. That there had been a massive consolidation of anti-BJP votes from the minority kitty was very evident. It was, however, the UDF who, as usual, turned out to be the lone beneficiary, bagging 70% of Christian votes and 65% of Muslim votes.
Traditionally, the UDF, with a strong Muslim League and the most dependable Kerala Congress factions as its allies, has benefited from minority votes in Kerala. The Left, on the other hand, does not have such fixed deposits of minority votes, despite it having the INL and a few minor Kerala Congress parties in its kitty. One of the most significant political changes the Pinarayi-led CPM has been engineering for long, is to bring minorities to the Left fold by winning their trust. The Left seems to have succeeded to some extent in its efforts to win Christian votes. It could lure the powerful Jose K Mani-led Kerala Congress faction into LDF. Yet, wooing Muslims remains an unfulfilled dream.
This time though, the ruling BJP at the Centre has handed the Left several golden opportunities, in the form of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), Palestine allegations and Ram temple. The Congress’ timid response to the sensitive issues has given hopes to the Left..
In the 2004 and 2009 elections, the UDF enjoyed considerable support of Muslims and Christians. In 2004, it polled 57% Muslim and 62% Christian votes while the LDF got 41% and 31% votes, respectively. However, the Muslim votes helped LDF win 18 of 20 seats in the elections. In 2009, UDF won 68% Muslim and Christian votes each while the LDF managed to get just 26% and 32%, respectively. And it ended up winning just four seats.
Meanwhile, amid the LDF-UDF tussle to win over Muslim voters, there’s also a stealthy attempt by the third, the BJP-led NDA, to woo Christians. A host of national and local issues are hence being played out in the state, be it the Manipur violence, ill-treatment of Christians elsewhere in North India, rising human-animal conflicts, the fishermen protests over Vizhinjam port, with discussions turning out to be far more deep-rooted than portrayed.
One can see BJP nurturing its ambitious Christian outreach programme, the LDF going all out to humour Christian bishops across denominations and the UDF banking on its traditional support base.
The UDF hopes to retain its 65-70% minority votes. The LDF wants to poll at least 35-40% of votes that would ensure victory in key constituencies. The BJP aims to carve out its own niche among minorities here. Of late, this is how the saga of minority appeasement in Kerala politics has been unfolding. The shift in vote patterns among Muslims and Christians usually decides the winner. This time too, things are not going to be different.