THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The low turnout in the Lok Sabha elections, despite the high-decibel campaigning in the state, has left the three major fronts confused.
Going by conventional theory, the CPM believes the drop in turnout hints at a lack of anti-incumbency sentiment against the state government.
According to the CPM’s internal assessment, only 370 UDF votes were polled in a polling booth at Kollam town, where the opposition front enjoys a majority of 1,200 votes. It’s not an isolated incident, the party noted.
The substantially low voter turnout of 70.35% has given fresh hopes to ruling Left, while it has left the UDF and the NDA a tad disappointed.
Poll statistics of the last four general elections show whenever there has been a huge voter turnout, it has proven to be a washout for either LDF or UDF. In 2004, when the state recorded 77.77 polling percentage, the Left romped home with 18 seats. Similarly, in 2019, when the poll percentage was 77.84, the UDF won 19 of the 20 seats.
As per the Left’s calculations, there was considerable leakage of UDF votes in its strongholds. In some places, it believes, the NDA poached UDF votes. The reluctance on the part of UDF voters was evident from low voter turnout in even assured seats like Ernakulam.
The unexpectedly low poll percentage in Muslim League strongholds — Ponnani and Malappuram — indicated a visible reluctance among minority voters, too.
The CPM claimed there was no dip in the Left votes, most of which were polled in the first half of the day itself. “By around 5pm, 95% of the Left votes were polled. There was a visible dip in voter turnout in many UDF strongholds. The Left has considerable winning chances in many seats,” said a CPM state committee member.
The CPM leadership said there was a split in Muslim votes, and that would prove beneficial to the Left.
Most political votes seem to have been polled, while the majority of the fluctuating voters didn’t turn up, observed political commentator N M Pearson.
“The moderate voters who usually cast their franchise in favour of or against the governments have not been polled,” he said.
The absence of pro- or anti-state government votes show that the Left could well improve its performance.
Meanwhile, the NDA maintains high hopes. “In some constituencies, all the CPM votes haven’t been polled,” said a senior BJP leader.
“Also there was considerable lag from the part of polling officials. This has also led to delay in polling and many voters returning without casting their votes.”
The UDF also claimed reluctance to vote among LDF supporters. “Contrary to general perception, the dip in poll percentage was not due to absence of UDF voters,” said CMP general secretary C P John.
“There was visible reluctance by LDF voters. The last minute issues around the E P Jayarajan episode might have contributed to this reluctance.”