MALAPPURAM: Now that voting for the Lok Sabha elections is over in Kerala, the Indian Union Muslim League, is waiting with bated breath for June 4, when the results are announced. For the League, the results, especially of the Ponnani Lok Sabha constituency, will be of immense significance. For, a defeat or even a reduction in the League’s winning margin in either Ponnani or Malappuram seat will be perceived as a victory for the LDF’s planning in the election, and more importantly, signify the dissatisfaction of the Samastha with the IUML.
Conversely, if the IUML candidates win from Malappuram and Ponnani with substantial margins, it will not only reaffirm the IUML’s dominance over Samastha but also let it assert that there are no significant issues between the leaderships of the two organisations.
There have been tensions and discord between the Samastha and League leaderships in the run-up to the elections. In Malappuram, the LDF strategically exploited this disagreement, as well as the perceived inaction of the League’s leaders against the alleged RSS agenda, including criminalisation of triple talaq, in its campaigning.
Meanwhile, Ponnani, where former IUML state secretary K S Hamsa contested on an LDF ticket, witnessed intense campaigning by the Left front against the IUML, while leveraging this discord.
Already, the lower voter turnout in the two constituencies in Malappuram district, compared to the 2021 assembly elections, is being seen as an indication of Samastha’s dissatisfaction.
The turnout in Malappuram constituency was 71.7%, around 4.07 percentage points lower than 2021’s turnout of 75.77%. Ponnani reported a polling percentage of 69.21%, around 5.77 percentage points lower than 2021’s 74.98%. The LDF feels the lower turnout will benefit Hamsa more. It also believes a section of dissenting Samastha members abstained from voting, and this was one of the reasons for the low polling percentage.
“The drop in turnout is a setback for the IUML in Malappuram district, especially in the Ponnani LS seat. A majority of LDF members cast their votes this time, while a section of Samastha members dissatisfied with the IUML’s stance abstained,” LDF leader and Sports Minister V Abdurahiman told reporters.
Refuting the same, the IUML said the lower turnout will not stop its candidates from winning the two seats by a huge margins.
“The turnout was low in all constituencies, not just Ponnani,” said IUML state general secretary PMA Salam, who said the Election Commission should be held accountable for the decline.
He also said the two LS constituencies in Malappuram, especially Ponnani, serve as experimental grounds for the LDF. “The CPM has conducted various experiments in Ponnani. It previously fielded V Abdurahiman and P V Anvar in Ponnani to challenge the IUML’s dominance. This time, they fielded K S Hamsa. The CPM knows a win from the constituency is unlikely. Hence, it experiments with candidates who have no ideological connection with the party,” Salam said.