KOCHI: It is a double whammy for the Left in Kerala. Besides suffering a humiliating defeat in 19 seats, including losing one to the BJP, it finds itself in a quandary after polling fewer votes in its strongholds of North Malabar, Palakkad, and Alappuzha. While the Congress won most of the seats with huge margins, the BJP has increased its vote share, raising questions about the erosion of the Left’s vote base and its beneficiaries.
In Kasaragod, the CPM polled fewer votes in all seven assembly constituencies compared to last year, and most surprisingly, it polled fewer votes in the strongholds of Trikaripur, Payyanur and Kalliasseri, where there has been a simultaneous increase in BJP votes.
Meanwhile in Kannur, BJP’s votes doubled in CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s booth (161) in Dharmadam to 115, as against 53 in 2019.Similarly, in Vadakara, the party candidate polled fewer votes in Thalassery and Kuthuparamba, much to everyone’s surprise.
In Palakkad, politburo member A Vijayaraghavan received fewer votes compared to the last poll, even in strongholds like Malampuzha and Shornur.
In the party heartland of Alappuzha, it has fallen behind in its vote base in Cherthala and Ambalapuzha, raising suspicions of an erosion in the vote base that it will have to introspect in the coming days.
While the CPM has been maintaining a brave front and pointing to the loss of Thrissur as a failure of Congress to keep its folks together, a constituent KC(M) has pointed fingers at the erosion of Left votes in Ettumanoor and Vaikom, accusing a strong anti-government sentiment among the masses.
Meanwhile, a former CPM member from Alappuzha said that the minority appeasement and hubris of the party leaders have been major factors in workers staying away from the booths and even voting for BJP candidates in many places.
“The overt appeasement of minorities through CAA has come at the cost of some Hindu voters becoming inactive or turning rogue in some places,” he said.
Political commentator N M Pearson told TNIE that the CPM has been losing party workers slowly due to a resurgence of identity politics and disappointment with the leadership. “Many Ezhava and Muslim party members have quit the party and joined their community organisations as part of disappointment with the party. Some communities like Vishwakarmas, who were party followers, have completely deserted it and aligned with the BJP. The CPM is refusing to accept the reality and is increasingly turning to minority appeasement to win,” he said.
He added that some CPM workers must have stayed home and not voted, while the ones with grouse and alienation must have voted for the BJP.
K M Sajad Ibrahim, a political analyst and professor in the Department of Political Science at Kerala University, stated that his studies have shown that the CPM has lost almost 10% of its committed Ezhava voters, who have drifted towards the BJP.
“Congress lost its committed voters earlier, and now it is the turn of CPM to lose its committed voters. Interestingly, the BJP has been steadily increasing its share of votes, who are committed and very political,” he said.
The traditional two-cornered fight in the state has given way to a three-way fight, according to Sajad. He said that the dynamics have been slowly changing since 2011. He noted that in Lok Sabha elections, voters also realised that the Left has only a marginal role, so they vote between Congress and BJP, who have a chance to form the government.
“The LDF managed to overcome the decline in its traditional voter base with a consolidation of minority votes in the 2016 and 2021 assembly elections,” he added.