KOCHI: With the mercury soaring and rain remaining elusive, Kerala may be in for drought-like conditions by mid-April, warn meteorologists. The state is expected to receive isolated rainfall in some places in the last week of March.
However, there are chances of water scarcity in April. The hot and humid conditions indicate that temperatures may breach 40 degrees Celsius by early April. The mercury is hovering around 39oC in Palakkad and Kollam districts, while Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, and Kottayam records around 37oC. Though there is sufficient storage in reservoirs, rivers and water bodies are drying up fast and water scarcity is forcing people to depend more on groundwater resources.
According to Cusat Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research director S Abhilash, there is an increased possibility of water scarcity in central and north Kerala in April if summer rains fail to deliver.
“While the southwest monsoon was deficient across Kerala, the northeast monsoon was 24% excess in south Kerala. There has been literally no rainfall in February, which has led to water scarcity across the state. The situation may aggravate in April if the dry weather persists. There will be isolated rainfall in some places in the last week of March. This will lead to an increase in humidity and the heat index will remain high. Besides the ultraviolet index will be high next week, which may lead to an increase in the chances of sunburn. Possibility of draught depends on the stress on groundwater resources,” he said.
However, according to IMD scientist V K Mini, the chances of drought are scarce as rainfall was not deficient last year.
“The state has been witnessing a departure of 2-3oC in maximum temperature for the past seven years so the prevailing weather is not unusual. If the summer rains deliver in April, the situation may change and there is no chance of a drought,” she said.
The state has sufficient water storage in the reservoirs and the situation is better than the drought years of 2012 and 2016, feels Kerala State Disaster Management Authority member secretary Sekhar Lukose Kuriakose.
“There is stress but it is manageable. There is water scarcity in some areas and we have given instructions to panchayats to make arrangements for the distribution of drinking water. The extreme heat condition prevailing from February is unprecedented, but we cannot call it a drought. We have sufficient storage in reservoirs. In 2012, Sasthamkotta Lake had dried up and in 2016 the storage was low at Aruvikkara and Neyyar in Thiruvananthapuram. But now we have sufficient storage and there is no need to panic,” he said.
The chances of drought will depend on the summer rains, said Centre for Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM) senior scientist C P Priju.
“If there is no rainfall till mid-April, the state may slip into a drought-like situation. As water bodies dry up, people will be increasingly dependent on groundwater, which may lead to its depletion. Besides, the rate of evaporation will be high due to the hot conditions prevailing across the state. If monsoon gets delayed the situation may aggravate. So there is a need to ensure restrictions on the exploitation of water resources,” he said.
However, the water level in the reservoirs of the irrigation department has been depleting, which indicates a looming crisis. “We have sufficient storage to manage our requirements in April. However, if there is no rainfall in April, the situation may worsen,” said department chief engineer M Sivadasan.
“We have given instructions to reduce the release of water for irrigation and to ensure the availability of water for drinking water projects. As the crop season is over, there is only limited demand for irrigation. As per indications the mercury will remain high in April and the resources may dry up due to an increase in evaporation. The need of the hour is the judicious use of water,” he said.
Water levels dip in reservoirs
An analysis of the water storage in irrigation projects revealed a decline in water levels in half the state’s reservoirs. There has been a significant reduction (37%) in Mangalam irrigation project in Palakkad from last year.
“The change in other reservoir storage volumes in 2024 when compared to 2023 is minor, within 10% (plus or minus). Summer rains could enhance these conditions,” said CWRDM executive director Manoj P Samuel.
